Projecting the CanMNT's squad ahead of their November World Cup qualifiers
The CanMNT is set to reveal their squad ahead of 2 crucial Octo qualifying games in Edmonton later this month. Here's my best stab at projecting what this squad might look like when it drops.
It’s almost snuck up on us here.
Yet, it’s really starting to become quite real - in less than 2 weeks time, the CanMNT will play 2 crucial World Cup qualifiers in Edmonton against Costa Rica and Mexico, 2 games that could very well make the difference between them qualifying for Qatar or remaining at home come winter of next year.
Having gotten off to a decent start to the ‘Octagonal’, the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers, sitting in 3rd out of 8 teams with 10 points after 6 games, these 2 matches could either allow Canada to pull away from the rest of the pack and create a bit of breathing room at the top, or get dragged right back into the middle of the fight, depending on the results.
Considering that the top 3 teams after 14 games will head straight to the 2022 World Cup, while the 4th place team will get an opportunity to join them via the intercontinental playoff, Canada will want to most definitely start to pull away versus fall back, though, because the longer they stay in the middle pack, the easier it’ll be for them to slip up.
But the good news is that they created a tiny bit of separation from that middle pack the last camp, currently sitting 2 points ahead of Panama in 4th, and 4 points ahead of Costa Rica in 5th, which is something they can build off of this camp.
Plus, sitting just 1 point behind the US in 2nd, and 4 points behind Mexico in 1st, they have a great opportunity to crawl even higher up the table this camp, allowing them to make things a bit more comfortable for themselves with 6 games to go.
So the stakes are clear for Canada this camp - it’s imperative that they go and first beat Costa Rica, creating some distance between Canada and the middle pack, before trying to at least draw (if not beat) Mexico in the 2nd game, further pushing Canada towards a concrete spot in the top 3.
Because of that, it’s going to be interesting to see what Canada’s head coach, John Herdman, elects to do in terms of a squad for this camp. With it being the only double match window of this Octo for all of the teams (all other windows have or will have had 3 games), this will be the least taxing window for everyone, only adding intensity to these games.
Plus, Canada will be the only team in the Octo to host both of their games during this window, too, meaning that they’ll avoid the travel that some of their opponents will have to deal with, too,which should only benefit them, making it imperative that they exit this window with at least 4-6 points.
That means that for Herdman, his job will be as easy as it’ll get during this Octo, which for someone who has already had to deal with some hefty injury crises, a rash of suspensions and some harsh travel, probably isn’t something you imagine he’s complaining about right now.
And looking at all of that, it makes projecting a Canadian squad for this window quite intriguing. After picking essentially just 22 players in the September window, Herdman decided to call in 27 for the October window, realizing how quickly injuries, suspensions and other absences can pile up (and even that still wasn’t enough, as Canada played with an incomplete squad in all 3 games that they played in October).
But now, with there being limited travel and just two games, you have to imagine that he returns to more of a traditional 23 player squad once again this window, which should be more than enough to help Canada do what they’re aiming to do later this month.
Seeing that, here’s my best stab at projecting who that 23 player group might look like when it drops, which is expected to be later this week, as I’ll try to project who will don the red and white in just over 10 days’ time.
As usual, there will probably be some misses when looking back on this, as Herdman is always good for a surprise or two (which is why I do the 'Surprise Ratings' over at BTSVancity), but at the same time, it’ll also help see who are some names to keep an eye out for in the coming days.
So without further ado, let’s dive right into it.
Injury Woes: Scott Kennedy, Junior Hoilett
And to start, it’s worth pointing out a few names that might not be in Edmonton for medical reasons, and the main headliners of that list are Scott Kennedy and Junior Hoilett, who both remain out of club action with injuries.
To start, Kennedy looks to already ruled out for these Canada games, as his quad injury, which also kept him out of the October window, is expected to keep him on the sidelines until late November, which will just be too tight for these 2 matches, which come on November 12th and 16th.
As for Hoilett, though, his timeline is more up in the air, because while he’s been out since suffering a hamstring injury in training during the October window, he looks closer to returning, something he could possibly even do before this camp.
So unlike Kennedy, we can’t rule him out yet, but it does seem unlikely that he’ll make the trek over to Canada unless he plays a game before the international window, so keep an eye on him over the coming week.
Otherwise, though, after a rash of injuries in October, including ones to Atiba Hutchinson, Cyle Larin, Lucas Cavallini, Alphonso Davies and Stephen Eustaquio, all of those players have recovered without much worry, which is good news, leaving Canada with a relatively healthy roster, all things considered.
The squad:
So considering those potential absences, here’s a look at what Herdman’s 23 player group should look like.
Goalkeepers: Milan Borjan, Maxime Crepeau, James Pantemis
And to start, there aren’t really any surprise choices in goal, which has quickly become a position of strength for Canada over the past few years, helping them become a solid defensive team.
First, there’s Milan Borjan, who after missing last camp with COVID-19, has recovered quite nicely, slotting back into the net for Red Star, helping them continue their quest up the Serbian Super Lig, where they currently sit 2nd, and in Europa League, where they lead their group through 3 games.
Having had a great September window for Canada, he’ll likely slot right back into the fold for these games, of which you just have to imagine he’ll be itching to play in after missing that last camp.
But while Borjan would normally be the de-facto #1 heading into most camps, his position atop the Canada goalkeeping chart isn’t so assured right now, and that’s due to the emergence of Maxime Crepeau, who filled in quite nicely for him last window.
In the midst of a season where he’s arguably been a top 5 goalkeeper in MLS over with the Vancouver Whitecaps, Crepeau has hardly set a foot wrong all year, be it with club or country, so it’ll be interesting to now see what Herdman chooses to do in goal.
No doubt, thanks to his emergence this year, Canada has two #1s now, but that comes with questions - does Herdman choose to give each goalkeeper a game this camp now? Or does he just choose a guy and run with them?
That’ll be up to him to answer, but so far based on what we’ve seen from him, the latter seems like the preferred option, which seems to favour Borjan, who is a key leader on this team, but at the same time, don’t count out Crepeau quite yet.
Otherwise, should something happen to either of those goalkeepers (knock on wood), expect James Pantemis to round out this trio, as he’s held things down all year long for Montreal, and has become a regular in this Canadian squad as a result of that.
With Dayne St.Clair not playing much these days, the only other option that one could possibly replace Pantemis would actually be his Montreal teammate, Sebastian Breza, who has filled in nicely for Pantemis a few times at the club level recently, but other than those two, it’s hard to see who else is playing regularly enough at an equivalent (or higher) level at the moment, giving them the upper edge (with Pantemis slightly ahead of Breza) to earn a nod this camp.
Milan Borjan (#18, centered) celebrates a win vs El Salvador in September with the rest of his teammates (Keveren Guillou) (IG: @kevereng)
Centre Backs: Kamal Miller, Steven Vitoria, Doneil Henry, Derek Cornelius
Otherwise, at centre back, much like in goal, there aren’t too many other surprises, as Canada should be expected to run it back with the same group as they did last camp, and considering that they only conceded 2 goals in 3 games, that’s not a bad thing.
Headlining the group should be Kamal Miller, who is in the midst of a breakout campaign with Montreal, having helped them make a surprise push up the standings, one they’re looking to end off on a high note. They might not be on the best run as of late, and are in danger of missing out on the playoffs, but Miller’s remained solid despite that, showing his quality whenever he’s played.
Seeing how solid he’s been for Canada this year, too, it makes him not only a lock to be in this camp, but likely to start both games, too, continuing what’s been a strong year for him.
And expected to sit alongside him will be Steven Vitoria, who has had a very strong year for country, helping Canada find some of that aforementioned defensive solidity.
He might not be having the best start to his season for Moreirense, as injury and suspension has made it hard for him to find a rhythm, but he remains a key leader on this Canadian team, making him a candidate to start both games, fitness permitting.
But should Miller or Vitoria slip up or need a replacement, Canada does have two solid options in Doneil Henry and Derek Cornelius, who only played 1 game each last camp, coming against Jamaica, which interestingly enough the only game in which Canada kept a clean sheet in October.
On one side, you’ve got Henry, who has continued to plug away with Suwon Samsung Bluewings, helping them to a top-half spot in the K-League after a tough summer, and on the other you’ve got Cornelius, who has continued to earn minutes on a Panetolikos team that has so far surprised onlookers with their decent start to the Greek League team, giving Herdman 2 good backup options.
As a result, they should round out what is a pretty good set of Canadian centre back options, which should hopefully allow them to continue what they’ve started this Octo, where they sit with the 2nd best defensive record through 6 games, with this pool of players having played a big role in that so far.
Steven Vitoria (#5) celebrate a Canadian goal vs Panama last month with his teammates (Keveren Guillou) (IG: @kevereng)
Full Backs: Alphonso Davies, Alistair Johnston, Richie Laryea, Sam Adekugbe
But while Canada’s centre backs have played a big role in that strong defensive record, so too has their full backs, which is arguably one of the strongest positions in their squad on paper.
Because of that, it’s hard to imagine they’ll be much change from the names that Canada called up last camp, as they’ve got a good group of full backs that they rely on, and that should be no exception this window.
Expected to lead the way will be their starman, Alphonso Davies, who has continued a very strong start to the year with Bayern, playing better than ever for them at left back, showing why he’s the best player in CONCACAF, and is a shout to earn his second nod in FIFA’s World XI later this year.
Fresh off of one of his best camps in a Canadian jersey, one where he had several instances where he just seemed to pick up this team and put them on his shoulders in some key moments, he’s going to be up for these games, especially considering that it’ll be the first time he represents his country in his hometown.
Elsewhere, one of the next names that should join Davies is one of Canada’s marquee players this year, and that’s been Alistair Johnston, who actually leads this team in minutes this Octo, having played all but 14 minutes for Canada through 6 games, showing how valuable he has become to Herdman’s plan.
Be it at right back in a back 4, or as a right centre back in a back 3, Johnston has no problems filling in wherever required for this team, which has made him a lock in Canada’s squad as the year has gone along here.
But Johnston’s not the only swiss-army knife that Herdman has at his disposal at this position, though, as there’s also Richie Laryea, who should also be a lock for this squad, having gone the full 90 in 5 out of 6 Octo games so far (and he only missed out on the 1 due to a suspension, too).
No matter if he’s been deployed as a winger or a full back, the Toronto FC man has been a beacon of consistency for his country this year, and thanks to that has become one of the main headliners on this Canada squad, hence his inclusion here.
Lastly, expected to join this group will be one of Canada’s biggest breakout players this year, and that’s Sam Adekugbe, who was already on a strong upward trajectory before 2021, one that has only been accelerated by a move to Hatayspor in the Turkish top flight.
Thanks to that, he’s found another level to his game in recent months, and he’s managed to translate that to whenever he plays for Canada, not only making him a lock for this squad, but a shout to get significant minutes, too, as it feels like he could be in line for a bigger role with his country.
So overall, there’s a lot to like with this full back group, which much like last camp, pretty much picks itself, showing why it’s one of Canada’s deepest positions in their squad right now.
Alphonso Davies unleashes a shot vs Panama last month (Keveren Guillou) (IG: @kevereng)
Midfielders: Stephen Eustaquio, Atiba Hutchinson, Mark-Anthony Kaye, Jonathan Osorio, Samuel Piette, David Wotherspoon
But while full back is arguably one of the deepest positions in this Canada squad, there is a reason why there is an argument, and that’s because their midfield is just as deep, if not deeper, and a look at some of the names here confirms that.
To start, headlining the group is the one name actually confirmed for this squad, and that’s Stephen Eustaquio, who was revealed to be on Canada’s roster on Wednesday, but that’s not all that surprising seeing how key he’s been to his country’s efforts this year.
Having started 5 out of Canada’s 6 games this Octo, and 13 of 17 games in 2021, he’s been their Mr.Reliable at the heart of midfield all year long, and that should be no exception once again this window.
Otherwise, looking at some of the names that will be expected to join him in the middle of the park, look for Canada’s ageless wonder, Atiba Hutchinson, to make his return to Herdman’s squad this window, having missed out on October’s camp with an injury.
After a strong September window from Hutchinson, it was a tough blow to not have him in October, so Canada will be happy to see that he appears to be fully fit again now, allowing their captain to return to the fold.
Alongside him, another name that will be expected to be added to the squad will be Mark-Anthony Kaye, who has quietly been plugging away with another solid year for club and country, making him an easy inclusion in the squad.
He might not be a name that stands out at first glance on this squad, but he always finds a way to step up whenever he puts on that Canadian shirt, showing why he’s likely in Canada’s first-choice XI when everyone’s healthy, if not right on the outside of it.
And also likely joining Kaye and co should be Jonathan Osorio, who has just quietly been one of Canada’s most important midfielders this Octo, playing a big role in helping his team get to where they are now, having 2 of his best games in both of Canada’s wins so far.
Having been a regular for years now in this Canadian squad, he’s seemed to take a step forward this year, becoming a main starting option under Herdman, making him a lock in this squad.
But speaking of Canadian veterans, however, another experienced name that should be expected to be on this squad is Samuel Piette, who is one of Canada’s most-capped players, having carved out a role as a reliable figure over the years.
He might not start as much for Canada as he used to, mostly due to how good this team has gotten in midfield, but that’s by no fault of his own, as he’s only gotten better by the year, and is in the midst of one of his better club seasons. Plus, he can do a job as a starter, or off the bench, making him good depth for Herdman, who knows that he’ll get stability out of Piette no matter which role is asked of him.
Then lastly, the name that will likely round out this group should be David Wotherspoon, who might not play as much as some of the other options, but remains a key part of this team, thanks to both his leadership and his talent, both of which are key assets on this side.
As one of the hardest workers on this team, he helps set the tone in training and whenever he ends up on the pitch, be it as a starter or substitute, which much like Piette, makes him a key part of this side, as you know that no matter what’s asked of Wotherspoon, he’ll deliver, which is exactly what you want from your depth players.
So seeing all of that, there’s a lot to like with this midfield group, which is one of Canada’s deepest positions in their squad for a reason, and a look at who is expected to represent the team in November shows why.
Jonathan Osorio battles for the ball vs Panama last month (Keveren Guillou) (IG: @kevereng)
Forwards: Jonathan David, Cyle Larin, Tajon Buchanan, Liam Millar, Lucas Cavallini
Then to round things off, we then have Canada’s forwards, who complete a pretty solid squad, one that should have plenty of firepower in it.
And speaking of firepower, there might be no player that packs more of an offensive punch right now than Jonathan David, who is in the midst of an excellent run of form for Lille, sitting 1st in the Ligue 1 goalscoring table, and is fresh off of scoring his first Champions League goal.
So while he’s certainly not been on a similar path with Canada, where goals have been harder to come by (he has 2 in 6 games so far this Octo), that he’s in such a strong vein of form bodes well for David ahead of this camp, of which he is certainly a lock to not only be in the squad for, but have a significant starting role in, as well.
Expected to slot alongside him, though, should be Cyle Larin, who will look to make his return to the Canadian squad after injury robbed him of the opportunity in October, and for Herdman, that’s great news.
Canada’s leading goalscorer this year with 12 goals in 11 games, including 2 in 2 in the Octo, he’s seemed to score whenever he’s on the pitch, so on a Canadian team looking to score more goals, his return should certainly help them do that this camp.
Otherwise, rounding off Canada’s trio of red-hot goalscorers, you’ve got Tajon Buchanan, who will be expected to play a big role this camp both as a forward and as a wing back, continuing what has been a strong year for him at club and country.
At the club level, he’s been scoring for fun, helping the New England Revolution break records along the way, and that’s translated over to his play for Canada, where he might not be scoring as often, but he seems to do so right at the perfect moments for his team, something they’ll want him to repeat once again this camp.
But while those 3 will headline this group, look for Liam Millar to likely be one of the names to help round off this strikeforce, and it’s a deserved honour, as he’s adapted quite quickly to life in the Swiss League, becoming an offensive force for Basel.
Thanks to that, it allowed him to return to the Canadian fold last window, and while the one thing he’ll be remembered for from that camp is a tough miss that could’ve won the game against Jamaica, that shouldn’t define his play, as there aren’t many producing like him at the club level right now, which for a Canadian team short on forward options, makes him a shoo-in for this roster.
And then lastly, but not least, we’ve got one of the more controversial names on this roster, and that’s Lucas Cavallini, who will most certainly likely be in this camp, as he is one of the leaders on this roster, but he does come into these games in some of the worst form of his life.
Having struggled with injuries this year, he’s now lost his starting spot at the club level, and his last goal at any level came all the way on July 4th, showing how bad things have gotten for Cavallini, who would score for fun before.
But the good news for him is that on a Canadian team short on striking options at the moment, he'll get a chance to get a proper chance to fight for minutes this window, which after missing most of the last 2 camps with an injury, might be just what the doctor ordered for him (no pun intended).
And for Canada, that’s not a bad thing, because A) there might be no player more suited for CONCACAF than Cavallini, and B), he does have a history of scoring for his country, sitting 7th on the all-time goalscoring charts, which along with the leadership factor, also likely makes him a lock for this squad, form aside.
So seeing all of this, while this forward group is probably the part of the squad that’s thinnest on depth at the moment, it does pack a lot of punch, so for a Canadian team looking to score more goals, hopefully they can find a way to make that happen this camp.
Jonathan David unleashes a strike vs Panama last month (Keveren Guillou) (IG: @kevereng)
23rd (24th, 25th, 26th?) man: Joel Waterman, Zachary Brault-Guillard, Liam Fraser, Scott Arfield, Russell Teibert, Theo Corbeanu, Terran Campbell, Easton Ongaro, Tesho Akindele
But while that’s certainly a solid squad, there is one problem with it - there’s only 22 players in it, and that’s because it’s so hard to nail down that 23rd spot at the moment, which will certainly give Herdman plenty to think about.
If he’s healthy, the spot goes to Hoilett, no doubt, but assuming that he can’t make it over, it all of a sudden opens things right up, making for an interesting discussion.
And what’s most interesting about it is that Herdman literally has a blank slate to do what he wants with that spot, because using this squad as an example, Canada has 3 goalkeepers, 4 centre backs, 4 full backs, 6 midfielders and 5 forwards, which along with the fact that they have a couple of players that can play multiple positions, means that there’s no glaring positional need when looking at this roster.
That opens up the door for all sorts of players to potentially come in, because Herdman could reasonably bring in a centre back, full back, midfielder or a forward and it’d make sense, giving him freedom to pick what he deems to be the best fit.
So looking at that, there are a few players that do stand out.
First, if Herdman wants to shore up things at the back, which could in turn move someone like Alphonso Davies up the pitch, he could go for a defender, and he does have 2 pretty good options there in the CF Montreal pair of Joel Waterman and Zachary Brault-Guillard, who play centre back and right back, respectively.
Having both earned nods to Canada this year, with Waterman having filled in back in March, while Brault-Guillard was in October’s squad, there’s familiarity with both of them, too, which would help them integrate into the squad.
But if not, Herdman can also choose to possibly add in another midfield, too, shoring up their depth in that area of the pitch.
It does feel like the least likely option, at least when looking at this projected squad, but seeing how good Liam Fraser has been this year for Columbus and Canada, he could be a shout, while Russell Teibert has quietly been playing out of his skin as of late, making him an option, and of course there’s Scott Arfield, who has started to play more for Rangers as of late, which could spell his return into this squad.
Otherwise, the likeliest choice would seem to be to add a forward, though, which considering that there’s only 5 forwards currently in the projected squad, probably makes the most sense.
And there, Herdman has options.
If he wants stability, he could go for someone familiar like Tesho Akindele, who isn’t flashy, but will most certainly do a job if called upon, and is from Alberta, allowing him to have a homecoming of sorts.
But if he wants explosiveness, though, he could go for a more mercurical option in Theo Corbeanu, who is just finding his legs in his first season as a professional, and has shown great flashes for Canada in his past, but that could come at a cost, as he could stand to lose a bit of progress that he’s made at the club level with a call up.
But if not, the last 2 options up front remain the most intriguing, and that’s the possibility of calling someone in from the Canadian Premier League, which based on what we’ve seen this season, likely favours Easton Ongaro and Terran Campbell, the pair of 23 year olds who currently sit 2nd and 3rd in league scoring, respectively.
It’d be a bold play, no doubt, but seeing the form that they’re in, it’d be a good way for Canada to fill in the depth that they’re lacking at striker, which is something they could use.
Plus, with Campbell located in Victoria, and Ongaro in Edmonton, it wouldn’t be that far of a journey for them to come and participate as the 23rd player on the roster, allowing them to get a taste of what it’s like to be in a Canadian camp, which could be beneficial down the road.
Otherwise, you can of course keep an eye out for some names that we haven’t listed here, but could certainly be an option.
For example, could this be the camp where Canadian-eligible forward, Daniel Jebbison earns his first nod? Some rumours say maybe. If not, Richie Ennin and Lucas Dias could also look to earn their first senior caps after representing Canada at the youth level.
But either way, no matter what direction that Herdman chooses to steer himself towards, he has options to fill his squad, of which hasn’t been often seen in the history of his Canadian team, which can only benefit him ahead of this camp.
Looking Forward:
So there you have it - that’s my best stab at trying to predict the Canadian squad for this camp.
On one hand, it’s quite easy in many aspects, as this Canadian team has started to pick itself at certain positions, but there are a few battles to monitor, especially up front, where it feels like everything is up in the air.
But other than that, though, this should be a solid Canadian squad, one that has taken all sorts of strides forward this year, and will want to continue doing that in this camp, allowing them to put one foot in the World Cup.
Playing in front of a raucous Edmonton crowd for both games, they’ve got a chance to make some noise this camp, and based on the allotment of players that they’ve got at their disposal, they shouldn’t have any problem doing that, allowing them to hopefully continue their journey towards 2022 in style.
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