Reviewing a rollercoaster of an October window for the CanMNT in the Octo
The CanMNT continued their quest towards Qatar earlier this month, as the 'Octo', the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, rolled on. Here's what we learned about Canada in this camp.
All-in-all, it was another solid window.
As they continue their quest through the ‘Octo’, the final round of CONCACAF’s World Cup qualifiers, the CanMNT did decently for themselves in their most recent window, in which they picked up 5 out of a possible 9 points through 3 games earlier this month.
After also picking up 5 out of a possible 9 points in the first 3-game window of this final round back in September, that has left them with a solid 10 points through 6 games, which is good enough to place them 3rd out of 8 teams in the Octo, as of writing.
Seeing that the top 3 teams in the Octo after this 14-game final round marathon will head to the 2022 World Cup, to be in one of those top 3 spots is not the worst position for Canada to find themselves in right now, as they remain in control of their destiny as they near the halfway point of this final round adventure.
So while it might not have been the ‘dream window’ for Canada, as they’ll feel that they left some points on the table in the first 2 games, but the fact that they went and drew Mexico 1-1 in the Azteca, drew Jamaica 0-0 in Kingston and beat Panama 4-1 in Toronto is no small feat, no matter what public opinion suggests.
If anything, as we mentioned after the last window, the fact that it feels disappointing to see Canada *only* pick up results like that shows how far this team has come in recent years, because if you told someone in 2015 that Canada was disappointed with away draws to Mexico and Jamaica in one window, they would’ve just laughed in your face.
But that’s just the reality of this Canadian team - they’re picking up results that they weren’t picking up before, and what’s scary is that they still haven’t really scratched their surface of what they can accomplish as a team.
Now, they’ll get a chance to take a big step forward in the next camp, when they’ll take on Costa Rica and Mexico in a pair of massive back-to-back home games in Edmonton, but until then, they’ll have plenty to chew on from their latest matches.
Knowing that 2 wins in that November window could put them in the driver’s seat for qualification for the 2022 World Cup, they’ll have every reason to want to take some of what they learned from this October window, and try to carry it forward into those games (and beyond).
So with all of that in mind, here’s a look at some of what stood out from their latest camp, in my October camp review.
October yields another interesting adventure:
To start, though, before focusing on some specific things from those games, let’s quickly take a look back at the games themselves, as much like in the first window, Canada went through quite the journey over the case of a 7-day span.
And make no mistake - this was a proper adventure, one that was even more arduous than the one that they faced back in September.
First, Canada convened in Mexico, where a clash with El Tri, the arguable top team in CONCACAF, awaited them at the famed ‘Estadio Azteca’, a stadium that Canada lost got a competitive point in back in 1980.
Sitting quite shorthanded due to a mix of injuries and COVID-protocol-related absences, Canada was expected to be in tough that game, as most would’ve been happy with a point out of that one, let alone all 3.
So while Canada were unable to deliver the latter, that they went out and then made the former a reality was massive, as they battled and ground their way to a well-earned 1-1 draw.
And despite going down 1-0 early in the first half, Canada were arguably the better side over the course of the game, too, playing some beautiful soccer that could’ve honestly gotten them all 3 points on another day.
Because of that, the optimism was running high heading into Canada’s 2nd game of this mini-road trip, where they had to take on Jamaica in Kingston.
Normally a feared away fixture, the game was expected to be an easy Canadian win, even despite their absences, especially considering that Jamaica was without several key players of their own, and had to play the game without fans due to a lockdown in Kingston.
So for Canada to then go out and draw that game 0-0 in a game that was more remembered for the field conditions and one Liam Millar miss was less than ideal, because while it wasn’t a bad result, it certainly felt like Canada left some key points on the table.
There’s a reason why the adage "there's no bad away points in CONCACAF" exists, and it’s due to games like that, but at the same time, it left Canada on the edge of pressing the panic button as they headed into a must-win game against Panama at home to close out this window.
Of course, all home games in this Octo are ‘must-wins’, but that Canada had to go face off against a Panama side fresh off of beating the US at home in their last game only added pressure to that one, as Canada, sitting 4th-placed at the time, knew that a win over the 3rd-placed Panamanians would be essential to stay on a World Cup qualification pace.
And to give credit to them, they then stepped up and got the job done in that game, cruising to a big 4-1 win, one that put them back into the top 3, doing so in emphatic fashion.
Despite still being shorthanded, and going down 1-0 inside 5 minutes in that game, Canada then rode their depth to a late flurry of goals, including a spectacular game-winner from Alphonso Davies that won’t be soon forgotten in these parts, leading to an emphatic victory.
So overall, while that Jamaica game could be one that comes back to haunt Canada, especially considering that it gave life back to the Reggae Boyz slim hopes of qualifying for Qatar, that they drew Mexico and beat Panama as they did is huge, overall making for a solid window.
In an Octo where the common formula to qualify for the World Cup is seen as ‘win your home games, pick up points away’, Canada has mostly done that so far, so as long as they continue on that path, and maybe pick up a surprise victory somewhere in there, they’re on the right track towards their goals, as it stands.
Canada’s David Wotherspoon controls the ball against Panama (Keveren Guillou)
The tactics continue to offer intrigue:
Shifting elsewhere, though, it’s also important to dive into some of the tactical talking points that emerged this window, because there were certainly a few.
Much like in the last window, Canada overall fared pretty well for themselves tactically, other than a few decisions here and there, but at the same time, there are also some things that they need to learn from ahead of the next window.
Here are some of those talking points.
Midfield adjustments prove to be key:
Much like in the last window, where I mentioned that Canada needs to keep 3 midfielders on the park at all times, that mantra remains truer than ever after this window, where Canada appeared to have learned their lesson from the first window.
Canada might not have the deepest midfield pool in CONCACAF, but in terms of their 6-8 player group, there aren’t many that can match them, and they reminded teams of that much this window.
And while their play in midfield against Panama and Jamaica was certainly solid for the most part, the crown jewel of that statement came in the first game, against Mexico, where Canada took on a team with midfielders from Ajax, Atletico Madrid and Real Betis, and won the midfield battle. Despite employing a trio from Toronto FC, Colorado Rapids and Pacos de Ferreira, Canada were relentless in that area of the park, helping control the game for their team, and that allowed them to win the game.
As seen after the match, Canada’s starting midfielders had more combined touches (131-104), and completed more passes (77-63) than their Mexican counterparts, allowing them to take control of that game, and it made a huge difference for Canada on the night.
On what was arguably an off-night for the trio of Jonathan Osorio, Mark Anthony Kaye and Stephen Eustaquio, who have certainly had better games together this year, they just slowly pushed Mexico into submission in midfield, and that gave them more freedom to express themselves elsewhere on the park.
And having set the tone there, that strong play continued into the next 2 games.
First, Kaye, Osorio and Samuel Piette did a relatively good job at shutting things down in Jamaica, where they kept the Reggae Boyz midfielders at bay all night, and that was reflected in the fact that no Jamaica midfielder completed more than 18 passes on the night.
It might have been a bit of a tougher game for Canada offensively than the Mexican game, as they weren’t able to turn those defensive efforts into all that much going forward, but the surface most definitely played a role in that, too, which is worth noting.
Then, Canada rolled into the Panama game with a trio of Eustaquio, Osorio and David Wotherspoon, and while it was their toughest showing defensively, as Panama’s midfielders won the possession battle and completed far more passes than Mexico or Jamaica, they only mustered up 7 shots (2 on target) to show for it, showing that Canada mostly kept them out of the dangerous areas.
Plus, Canada got a lot more going offensively, creating 3 shots and 3 key passes between Osorio, Wotherspoon and Eustaquio, compared to just 1 shot and 0 key passes from Panama’s midfield trio of Cristian Martinez, Alberto Quintero and Anibal Godoy, highlighting that last point even further.
So overall, it was a pretty good camp for Canada in the midfield, and that played a big role in their ability to pick up results.
As long as they keep playing at least 3 midfielders at a time, be it with those who featured this prominently in this camp, such as Eustaquio, Kaye, Osorio, Piette, Wotherspoon and Liam Fraser, or those who weren’t even here this camp, such as Atiba Hutchinson or Scott Arfield, it doesn’t matter, as long as they stick with 3 or more of them.
And that’s because either way, as we’ve seen as of late, Canada has one of the best midfield groups in CONCACAF, and they reminded opponents of that this camp.
The defence just keeps on clicking:
Otherwise, Canada continued to impress defensively, holding their opponents to just 2 goals through 3 games, which considering the calibre of teams that they were up against, is impressive.
That means that now, through 6 games this Octo, Canada has conceded just 4 goals, 3 of them via open play, which is tied for 2nd-best with the US, just behind Mexico and their 3 goals against.
And what’s most impressive about that is how efficient Canada have been in making those defensive results happen, as they only allowed 2.74 Expected Goals (xG) this camp, which along with the 3.37 xG that they gave up the last camp, means that they’ve only given up 6.11 xG (1.01 xG per game) so far this Octo, which is elite.
Much as with the midfield, it’s something that we highlighted after the last camp, but seeing that they only went out and somehow improved from that is impressive, as it shows that Canada is slowly growing into a pretty good defensive team.
No matter who they play with, or the formation that they use, Canada just finds a way to implement rigorous pressure whenever possible, while doing a good job of defending as a team.
Plus, as we saw this camp, they’re able to adjust on the fly, making little tweaks depending on the opponent.
For example, they were more passive than usual against Mexico, sensing the quality of their opponents, dropping back every time they lost the ball, instead of pressing high up the field as they tend to do.
Then, against Jamaica, they returned to that, but with slightly less intensity than usual, knowing that the heat in that game would probably sap them of their energy, as they instead focused on taking care of business in midfield.
Lastly, they then just opened things right back up for Panama, bringing back the high press, while combining that with a sturdy low block that offered next-to-nothing for their guests.
So overall, it might not have been the most complex tweaks, but they were the right ones, helping Canada get the job done defensively.
It might not be talked about as much as it should right now, but Canada has quietly become one of the top defensive teams in CONCACAF in 2021, as there’s a reason why they’ve only conceded more than 1 goal in a game just once in 17 games this year, and they proved that once again this camp.
Goals need to remain a priority:
But on the flipside, while Canada’s defence has arguably been the main reason why Canada sits with 10 points so far this Octo (imagine telling that to someone a year or two ago), Canada’s offence remains a question mark, one that’s been hard to pin down.
On one hand, they’re tied with Mexico for the most goals this Octo with 10, but on the other hand, 7 of those 10 goals came in their 2 games against Panama and El Salvador at home, in which Canada used their depth to pummel 2 tired sides at the backend of tough triple match windows.
So while it might seem that Canada is doing well offensively, the reality is that they’ve done most of their work in just 2 games, having been limited to 1 goal or fewer in the other 4 matches.
Plus, almost interestingly, they’ve overperformed their xG massively in those 2 wins, yet underperformed their xG in the other 4 matches, so while their xG of 10.06 lines up with the 10 goals that they’ve scored, that’s also inflated by 2 big performances.
Yes, considering that they’re faced off against the other top 7 teams in CONCACAF, something like that would be expected to a certain effect, but not to such as an extreme degree as this, which is why it’s become something to monitor.
And the tough thing for Canada’s head coach, John Herdman, is that there’s no easy solution to this problem. They’ve got the talent, they’ve been generating chances, but they just haven’t been ending up in the back of the net, which has unfortunately led to Canada dropping some points that they’ll want back.
But at the same time, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t options for Herdman to try out as he looks to solve this problem long-term.
As we mentioned heading into that Panama game, one thing to try was to play Jonathan David with a partner instead of alone, and considering that Herdman then went out and deployed Alphonso Davies in that role, that perhaps could help explain the Canadian offensive outburst in that game (especially seeing that Davies and David both had a goal and 1 assist).
Seeing that the last time that Herdman did something like that was in the El Salvador game, where he deployed Tajon Buchanan and David in a front 2 (a game in which, yes you guessed it, Buchanan and David each scored a goal and added an assist), there is certainly credence to that theory, one that should be explored further.
The one question with all of that is concerning what to do when Canada’s leading goalscorer this year, Cyle Larin, returns to the Canadian fold after an injury, as he and David have had mixed results in a strike partnership, but at the same time, you have to imagine that he and David will be smart enough to find something that works for both of them with more time together.
At their clubs, they both operate better with a strike-partner, instead of alone up top, so there’s no reason why they can’t make something work for Canada, and based on what we saw in games against Suriname and Haiti earlier this year, there is precedent for that being a possibility.
And at the very least, you know that you’ve got the nuclear option that is ‘ move Davies or Buchanan up top’ that you can break out and use, if needed, so there’s always that to consider, too.
As long as there is some form of 2-striker partnership combined with a 3-man midfield group (as seen earlier), Canada should be in good shape offensively, giving them a better chance at fixing their offensive woes.
Elsewhere, the one big change that Canada will need to work on is offensive set pieces, as they’ve been quite inconsistent in that area of their game so far this Octo, almost frustratingly so.
Be it with their deliveries, or the runs that they make, Canada has been far too inconsistent from dead-ball situations, and it’s been tough to watch at times.
There might have been no better example of that then against Jamaica, a game in which Canada had 10 corners to Jamaica’s 3, yet Jamaica had the far better chances from that avenue, looking far more dangerous with their limited opportunities.
So while Canada does have 1 goal from a wide set-piece and 1 from a corner so far this Octo, it feels like they should have far more of them, especially considering the sheer number of corners and fouls they win.
As one of the speediest teams in CONCACAF in transition, they find a way to consistently get these opportunities, but they’re not making the most of them right now, which has to be something they need to work on for the next window.
With aerial threats such as Steven Vitoria, Mark Anthony Kaye, Doneil Henry, Cyle Larin, Derek Cornelius and Lucas Cavallini, among others, along with some decent set piece takers in the likes of Stephen Eustaquio and Alphonso Davies, they’ve got the personnel, but they just need to start executing, because if they do, watch out.
Otherwise, though, Canada is in decent shape offensively, no doubt, but it just feels like they’ve got an extra gear that they’ve been yet to find this round, so if they can find that, and keep what they’ve been doing defensively, you can only imagine what they can start doing to teams going forward.
Standout Performers:
But moving on from a look at what Canada has been doing on the team side of things, let’s shift over to see who stood out from an individual standpoint this camp, as there were quite a few of them.
Much like we did the last camp, we’ll just highlight 3, as there are far too many to dive into all of them, so here are 3 that stood out most to us during these games.
Player of the Camp: Alphonso Davies
And to start, we’ll go to the player of the camp, which goes to Canada’s best player, and the best player in CONCACAF, Davies, who came up huge for his team in these games.
After a mixed September window, where he had 2 very solid games before missing out on Canada’s 3rd game with a knock, he came into this camp motivated to come up big for his country, which considering some of the absences that they were dealing with, was huge.
Playing in 261 out of a possible 270 minutes, he put this team on his back when they needed him to this camp, showing why he’s already been in FIFA’s World XI before even turning 21.
From his massive assist on the game-tying goal against Mexico, to *that* game-winning goal that he scored against Panama, he was a key offensive difference-maker for Canada this window, helping them grab the results that they did.
Despite having to deal with travel, the conditions and every opponent trying to hack him down, he just took the lumps and ran with them, staying focused on his task, which was to help his country win soccer games.
And that’s what’s so great with Davies. Having accomplished what he has already accomplished at his young age, you wouldn’t blame him for having an ego, yet he doesn’t really have one, and that’s reflected in that fact that he doesn’t mind getting into the trenches and grinding, showing that Canadian spirit in his toughest moments.
For a Canadian team that was sitting quite shorthanded, needing a hero, Davies was that guy for them this camp, keeping them ahead of the pack.
Now, heading into the November window in Edmonton, which will be a homecoming of sorts for Davies, who grew up in the city, you can only be excited about what he’ll have up his sleeve for those games, because if it’s like anything that we saw this camp, oh boy.
Honourable Mention: Tajon Buchanan
Breakout Player: Tajon Buchanan
But while Davies led the way, he had some strong support, and some of that came from Buchanan, who much like the last camp, continued to show that he’s a core part of this Canadian side.
Despite only having made his debut back in June of this year, he’s continued to get things done for this Canadian team, and this camp was no exception.
From his performance at the Azteca, where he was one of the best players on a pitch full of players who play in the Champions League, to his play against Panama, where he gave defenders fits all night, he had himself quite the camp, announcing himself once again to the world.
So while he ‘only’ officially finished this camp with a goal, much like was the case during the last camp and during the Gold Cup, he’s proven to be one of the most important pieces on this Canadian team whenever he plays, with his goals just being a bonus part of that equation.
And what’s exciting is that this is just the start of what’s to come for him. Having already made the transfer from the New England Revolution to Club Brugge, who he’ll join in the winter, his game is only going to skyrocket once he joins such a solid European club.
Because of that, keep an eye on him. He might have burst onto the scene a little later at 22, but he’s still got a long future ahead of him, and will be making things happen for camps to come for Canada, at least if what he’s shown so far is any indication.
Honourable Mention: Maxime Crepeau
Unsung Hero: Kamal Miller
Otherwise, to round things off, it’s important that we give props to someone who wasn’t maybe talked about as much this camp, and there’s no better player to highlight for that than Miller, who continued his strong play in a Canadian shirt this camp.
He only played in 2 of the games this window, but they were both big performances, as he first helped Canada keep Mexico quiet at the Azteca, before putting in a shift in the Panama win, showing his importance to this backline.
And considering that this backline is one of the best in CONCACAF, as mentioned earlier, that reflects well on the CF Montreal defender, who has quietly grown into a huge piece on this Canadian team.
With his emergence as an everyday centre back this year for Montreal, he’s gained all sorts of confidence and maturity, and that’s translated over to his play with Canada, where he’s started to earn a similar role under Herdman.
For a Canadian team that needed centre backs to step up at the beginning of this year, there might be none who have stepped up bigger than Miller in 2021, and his play this camp was an example of that.
Plus, still only 24-years-old, he has a lot still to come, too, so this is just the start of what he’ll be doing for Canada, which is quite an exciting prospect to envision.
Honourable Mention: Richie Laryea
The road to 21+:
Lastly, it’s worth taking a look to see how Canada is tracking on their ‘road to 21+’, which for those unfamiliar with the phrase, is the quest for Canada to pick up 21 or more points in the Octo, which should at least get them into the top 4 and the intercontinental playoff, if not the World Cup itself.
And considering that Canada has 10 points out of 6 games for an average of 1.66 points per game, they’re currently sitting above the bar of 1.5 points per game that is required to get to 21 points at the moment, which is quite nice.
Considering that they’ve played 3 home games and 3 away games so far, including their 2 toughest away games on paper, that’s pretty good, and shows that Canada is on the right track in terms of qualification.
Plus, seeing that they’ve actually got the best home record in the Octo so far, and sit 4th in terms of away record, they’re doing well in the ‘win your home games and pick up points away’ quest that was mentioned earlier, which is also good to note.
Now, the going will get tough, especially in those January and March windows, where Canada will have to the Octo by playing 4 of their last 6 games on the road, but as it stands, you have to like where they sit.
So if they can now go on and pick up 2 wins in the next window, getting them up to 16 points through 8 games, they’d be in an excellent position, sitting just 5 points off that famed 21 point bar with a 2 point per game average in their pocket.
And even if they don’t, as long as they get 4 points, beating Costa Rica and drawing Mexico, that’s pretty good, too, as 14 points from 8 games (1.75 points per game) is nothing to scoff at, either.
Miscellaneous:
To end things off, here are some other key pieces of information from the first few games of the Octo.
Overall Octo Standings:
Home Standings:
Away Standings:
Golden Boot Standings:
Octo:
Rolando Blackburn (Panama) and Ricardo Pepi (United States) - 3 goals
Tajon Buchanan (Canada), Jonathan David (Canada), Cyle Larin (Canada), Brendan Aaronson (United States) and Shamar Nicholson (Jamaica) - 2 goals
Overall:
Cyle Larin (Canada) - 9 goals
Tony Rugamas (El Salvador) - 8 goals
Canada’s Expected Goals stats:
xG for: 10.06
xG against: 6.11
xG difference: 3.95
Looking Forward:
Overall, though, much like the September camp, this was another solid window for Canada, who sit in a pretty good position through 6 games.
Could it be better? Of course, but for their first time in the Octo, Canada have done pretty well for themselves, and sit in a pretty good position as they near the halfway point of this journey.
So while the work is really just only getting started, as this is no time for them to start resting on their laurels, they can still be proud of what they’ve shown to date.
As long as they keep improving on what they’ve learned, and start turning some of their draws into wins, they’ll be in a position to qualify for the 2022 World Cup without much worry.
And even if they get dragged back into the fight, as they’ve already been a few times this year, they’ve shown that they’ve got what it takes to get out of those kinds of tough positions, so as long as they draw on what they showed the last few times they had their backs against the wall, they should be alright.
Continuing their journey towards Qatar, it’s so far been a bumpy road, with this latest window being yet another example of that, and this is just a start of what’s to come, as things really start to ramp up for them here.
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Alphonso Davies celebrates his goal vs Panama (Keveren Guillou)