Analyzing what the latest CanMNT commit, Iké Ugbo, can bring to the Canadian fold going forward
Some surprising CanMNT news hit the Canadian Soccer landscape on Thursday, but it was welcome news for many, as 23 y/o dual-national FW, Iké Ugbo, committed to Canada. Here's what to expect from him.
It came seemingly out of nowhere.
As the CanMNT got set to reveal their squad for the next round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers on Friday, no one expected many surprises in that announcement, at least not any of the grand variety.
Of course, there was hope that the squad could include some highly-rated dual-nationals, such as Daniel Jebbison or Lucas Dias, but at the same time, most people were also ready for a squad filled with some of the names we’ve been used to seeing in a Canadian shirt over the past few months, giving them their best shot ahead of these crucial Octo qualifiers.
So to then see Canada go drop a bombshell as they did on Thursday was a massive surprise, but a welcome one, as they officially announced that the 23-year-old Genk striker, Iké Ugbo, had committed to the Canadian program, making him the latest high-profile dual-national to join the fold.
And for Canada, this is massive news on so many fronts. Not only are they securing a very solid player in Ugbo, a former Chelsea product, who fills a key need in the Canadian squad, but they also continued to show that they’ve got a program that can sway dual-nationals who are on the fence over to their side, with this being the latest example of that.
Thanks to that, Ugbo now joins an impressive list of other dual-nationals that have recently made the switch over to Canada in the last few years, one that includes the likes of Stephen Eustaquio, Theo Corbeanu and Ayo Akinola, among others.
But that’s just been the sort of shift we’ve seen from this Canadian team as of late. Once a forgotten program, they’ve really started to throw their weight around in these sorts of negotiations, and this commitment was the latest example of that, allowing them to add yet another promising name to a team that is starting to really be filled with them.
So seeing all of this, there are a few questions to be asked - how did this come about? What can we expect from Ugbo? Where does he fit in the Canadian team?
In the wake of his commitment, I take a look at the answers to all of those questions, helping kick off day 1 of the Ugbo era for Canada.
A last-minute change:
And to start, it’s worth noting how quickly this really came up here. As recently as September, Ugbo seemed destined to become a Nigerian National Team player, which shows how quickly the wheels really started to turn in terms of him potentially committing to Canada in recent months.
Born in England, Ugbo was eligible for both England and Nigeria via his birthplace and heritage, and represented England at the U17 and U20 levels, playing a good chunk of minutes for them in both age groups, but he’d also flirted with Nigeria in the past, which made him seem likeliest to play for either of those two nations.
But where things got interesting is in the fact that during his childhood, his family actually moved to Canada for a few years, theoretically making him eligible to represent Canada, which came to the attention of many Canadian fans, who obviously wanted the Chelsea product to suit up for Les Rouges.
At the same time, though, many also wondered if he didn’t meet old FIFA eligibility criteria to represent the nation (since he wasn’t born in Canada, wasn’t of Canadian descent and moved back to England at a young age), which is why his name dropped off the radar a bit, at least compared to some of the other dual-nationals that have dominated the CanMNT conversation as of late.
But then, last year, FIFA tweaked their eligibility laws, and under the wording that they put in their new laws, it confirmed that Ugbo was actually indeed eligible to play for Canada, opening back up that door once again.
Despite that, though, that didn’t really mean anything if he didn’t commit to Canada, and seeing that reports throughout 2021 seemed to indicate that he still seemed poise to switch over to Nigeria, it still seemed unlikely that he’d ever don the red and white.
Clearly, though, that changed recently, as it looks like Canada got back onto the radar last minute, had discussions with Ugbo, and then put together all of the necessary paperwork to file his one-time switch, making him a CanMNT player this week.
And that’s huge for Canada. Obviously, it’s always big to score the commitment of a high-profile dual-national, but what’s so big about this one is that it came seemingly out of nowhere, as there were no rumours that leaked out beforehand, but that just shows how quickly and efficiently Canada worked here to make this happen.
So now, not only have they secured the services of a player that will help them both now and in the coming years, but they’ve also shown that they’ve got the muscle to compete for these sorts of high-profile dual-nationals in the future, which isn’t a bad thing at all considering some of the other names that they could still yet recruit, which means that this might not be the last time we see something like this happen.
Canada’s announcement graphic for Ike Ugbo (Canada Soccer/Twitter)
Scouting Report:
So Ugbo’s now in the Canadian fold. That’s great.
The next question remains - what can he bring to this Canadian team?
And to boil it down to a one-word answer, it’s quite simple, really - goals. With 18 goals in 41 games in the Belgian top-flight these last 2 years, he’s been one of the best strikers in that league recently, showing his strong offensive ability.
But while he’s been scoring for fun as of late, it’s worth noting that it wasn’t always that way for him, though.
Before he got to where he’s at now, he actually hit a bit of a rut in 2018-2019, which was his 20-year-old season. On loan to Scunthorpe United in the EFL League 1 from Chelsea, he only scored 1 goal in 16 games for the club that year, which was a disappointment for a player that was decently rated in Chelsea circles.
He did feature twice for Chelsea in the EFL Trophy, once before his loan, and once after it ended in January of 2019, even scoring a goal in that game before his loan, but other than that, it was a season to forget for him, making him wonder what he’d do next.
And from there, the answer ended up being a spot where no one really would’ve expected - the 2nd Dutch division. Off of the back of his disappointing 18/19 season, Chelsea sent him to Roda JC Kerkrade of the 2nd tier of Dutch football, and there, despite being on a team that went on to finish 17th out of 20 teams that year, he flourished, scoring 13 goals and adding 3 assists in 28 league games.
Thanks to that, he captured the attention of Cercle Brugge in the top flight ahead of the 20/21 season, and they decided to give the then 22-year-old a shot, loaning him in from Chelsea.
It ended up being a masterstroke of a move for Brugge, too, as Ugbo then went on to score 16 goals and add 1 assist in 32 league games that season, placing him tied for 6th in league scoring, helping Brugge finish 5 points above the relegation zone.
Along with 1 goal in 2 games in the cup, where they reached the quarter-finals, it was an overall great season for the striker, who all of a sudden had all sorts of eyeballs on him.
So from there, he then returned back to Chelsea one final time, where they had an offer of just under $4 million waiting for them from one of the top teams in the Belgian league, Genk, and they wasted no time in making that deal official, as he joined Genk shortly after that.
And so far, it’s proving to be a solid move for Ugbo, who now gets to play on a team that is pushing to win the title after only missing out on doing so last year on a tiebreaker, while also looking to make a run in Europa League, giving him multiple top platforms on which he can showcase his skills.
At the moment, he’s doing just that, as well, having so far scored 4 goals in 13 games across the league, Europa League and the cup, which doesn’t seem that impressive at first glance, but all of a sudden looks quite good when you consider that he hasn’t yet fully carved out a starting role at his new club yet, so far only playing 316 minutes across those 13 games (meaning that he’s scoring a goal every 80 or so minutes.
But that’s Ugbo for you - he’s a true goalscorer in every sense of the world.
Just a look at his radar from last year with Brugge, provided by Peter Galindo of Sportsnet, indicates as much.
Not only did he score goals for fun last season, but he also generated a good chunk of non-penalty Expected Goals (xG) and xG per shot, which shows that not only was he scoring goals, but he was generating good chances, too.
Plus, he’s pretty decent in the air, winning a fair bit of aerial duels, and does a pretty good job at pressing high up the pitch, which is indicated by his pressure regains.
So overall, he looks like a traditional #9, one that thrives on receiving the ball in the box and finishing his chances, but can also press high and win his aerial duels, which is certainly backed up by his stats over the last few years.
There is some work for him to do in terms of his hold-up play when the ball is at his feet, but based on his overall skill package, you can imagine that he finds a way to add that to his game, in turn making him a pretty complete #9.
Where does he fit in?
So seeing all of that, that leads us to the last question - where does he fit into the picture for Canada at the moment?
And it’s a great question, because while Ugbo won’t start for this team right away, especially not in the middle of their quest to make the World Cup, he certainly has the pedigree to further down the road.
Right now, if you had to pencil him in somewhere in Canada’s depth chart up front, you’d probably put him behind Jonathan David and Cyle Larin, and ahead of Lucas Cavallini, likely slotting right beside or just above Liam Millar, who has been scoring for fun at a good club in Basel, who are probably a level just below Genk’s.
But what Ugbo does have as an advantage over that group is that he brings something different to the table compared to his new teammates, which could allow him to fight for minutes earlier than some might expect.
Obviously, David and Larin are Canada’s 2 first-choice strikers right now if they stick with their 3-5-2/4-4-2, which seems likely, but it’s worth noting that they’re both more of second strikers, both of whom do like to play off of a true #9.
Larin and David are skilled enough to play off of each other as a tandem, so that’s not to suggest that Ugbo slots in ahead of them right away, but as more of a traditional #9, all of a sudden he looks like the perfect partner to deploy with either of those two names, if needed, so that’s worth considering.
So while he might not get many minutes right away for Canada, especially as he gets used to his new teammates, it’s worth keeping an eye on him over the next few months, because if he starts to carve out a regular role for Genk, scoring at the same rate that he did last year for Brugge, he all of a sudden could make things really interesting for Canada.
Plus, with there being so many games in the Octo, Larin and David won’t be able to play every minute of any match, and injuries do happen, so if Ugbo can continue to take steps forward at the club level, he has a chance to cement himself as a #3 option here, especially if Cavallini continues to struggle.
Obviously, Canada won’t want to rush him, but what’s most exciting out of all of this is that a few years ago, they wouldn’t have had that luxury, as a player of Ugbo’s calibre would headline this Canadian team, yet now he comes in without the pressure of that mantle, showing how far things have come for this team.
Looking Forward:
So ultimately, there’s a lot to like with this commitment for Canada. Not only did they shore up an area of need, but they did so by adding a very good piece to their puzzle, which continues to become more and more complete by the day.
Plus, they went about their business ruthlessly and efficiently here, getting this move over the line quite quickly, which is always something that you like to see in these sorts of scenarios, which can sometimes drag out longer than people would like.
Thanks to that, Ugbo can now just focus on continuing to work his way into the Genk starting 11, while also getting used to his new international career at his first camp next week, allowing him to take the next step in his career.
As seen here, bright things seem to be on the way for him, and this latest announcement is just the next step in that process, which can also be said for Canada, who continue to make all sorts of noise as their journey towards the World Cup continues to roll along here.
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If you get the chance ask him how much his committing was because of Phonzy and if he's heard anything about him from others.
Wow AGR how did you get this article out so quickly! Great content yet again. Thanks