Three things that the CanMNT should watch out for from new-look Jamaica side on Sunday
The CanMNT has a chance to book a spot in the World Cup with a win over Jamaica in Toronto on Sunday. Here's a look at what to expect from a new-look Reggae Boyz side in that one.
It promises to be a special occasion.
For the CanMNT, everything is perfectly set up for them to go out and make history this weekend, as they’ll have the chance to snap a 36-year World Cup drought against Jamaica in front of 30 000+ of their own fans at Toronto’s BMO Field on Sunday.
As part of the ‘Octagonal’, the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, it’s a huge moment for Canada, who with a win or draw (and in some cases, even a loss) can book their ticket to the 2022 Men’s World Cup on Sunday.
Having not qualified to that tournament since 1986, their lone participation in the big dance to this date, this Canadian team is on the precipice of changing that now, sitting just points away from making it a reality.
Even though they missed their first chance to book a spot on Thursday, narrowly losing 1-0 to Costa Rica in San Jose, all that did was set up Canada to now get the job done at home here. Knowing that a strong performance will get them to Qatar, while kicking off a party to remember, it promises to be a huge occasion, one where Canada will feel that they can finish the job in style.
At the same time, it’s important that they don’t sleep on their opponents for that game in Jamaica. Yes, this Jamaica team is reeling right now, already eliminated from World Cup contention after a turbulent run of qualifiers, but they’re one of the most talented teams in CONCACAF for a reason.
Plus, they also present a pretty unique challenge in the mix of skill, speed and physicality that they bring to the table, which isn’t always fun to play against.
So don’t be fooled by their poor record this Octo, as through 12 games, they sit 2nd-last with 8 points, with just 1 win, which came over last-placed Honduras. Despite that, and their -7 goal difference, they’re a better team than their record suggests, which is why they fired head coach Theodore Whitmore and replaced him with Paul Hall part way through this final round, feeling that he wasn’t maximizing the group that he had at his disposal.
And considering that this Jamaica team can count on players like Michail Antonio, Leon Bailey, Ethan Pinnock and Andre Blake as their main pieces, among others, it’s hard to dispute that claim. Yes, it isn’t always as easy as throwing a bunch of talented players to start winning, but they’re also not as bad as their record suggests, either.
Because of that, it’s important that Canada gives them their full respect on Sunday, or else the Reggae Boyz might just spoil their party. Even without their big star, Antonio, who remained with West Ham for this window with Jamaica already eliminated, as well as a good chunk of their other European-based players, this is still a very good side, one Canada will have to be wary of.
So seeing all of that, in this, I’ll look at three things that Canada will have to watch from this Jamaica team on Sunday, of which they’ll want to overcome if they’re to go out and finish the job that they’ve started - qualify for the 2022 World Cup.
Expect a physical one:
Having come in late, it’s been an interesting challenge so far with Jamaica for Hall, who hasn’t had time to change much considering he was only hired in December.
Because of that, we’re still seeing just the beginning of what they want to do, as they get used to the Hall system.
One thing that hasn’t gone away from before, however, is Jamaica’s physical nature, as they were one of the more physical teams in the Octo before, and haven’t lost that edge under their interim manager.
For example, when they hosted Canada in a gritty 0-0 draw in Kingston back in October, they fouled Canada 21 times, picking up 4 yellow cards for their troubles. Just for reference, Canada’s last game against Costa Rica was seen as a physical match, and even then the fouls were 18-15 for Canada, with 4 yellow cards (2 of them being to Mark Anthony Kaye to also add a red card) between both sides, period.
But that just shows how this Jamaican team can look to play.
With some strong ball-winning players in the middle of the park, and some strong defenders, Jamaica wants to be hard to play against in central areas, even if it means getting extra physical.
So for Canada, it’s important that they manage that.
Canada loves to occupy those central channels in games, but they’ll have to know that it won’t be easy to do that against this Jamaican side, especially considering that they appear to be using a 3-5-2 now, a formation that just reinforces those central areas even further.
Seeing how Jamaica has liked to play in these games, Canada will need to be ready for that, because or else they could quickly get intimated, even despite Jamaica’s already dashed World Cup hopes.
To be fair, that shouldn’t be much of a problem for this Canadian side, however, as they’re also quite the physical outfit themselves, not afraid to muck it up in the trenches, making it hard to imagine them getting intimidated by that.
Because of that, if the game trends that way, they should be ready to both deal with that and maybe dish out some of their own physical play, showing Jamaica that they’re there to play, especially knowing what’s at stake.
Jamaica’s directness a worry:
But for all of the talk of the physical side of the game, which to be fair, you’d certainly expect given how the first matchup between these two sides went, one other area you really have to watch out for with this Jamaica team is on the counter-attack.
And that’s one area where you really have to give Hall credit.
When Canada met Jamaica in October, for example, it felt like Jamaica just didn’t have that same edge in transition that they used to have, instead over-relying on set-pieces and wide balls.
That’s not a bad thing, to be fair, as they did quite well in that area in that game, but considering some of the speed that they have in their squad, you’d imagine that they would’ve wanted to find a way to make the more of that going forward.
And the good news for them is that Hall has started to improve that. In fact, in the 4 games that he’s been in charge (vs Mexico, Panama, Costa Rica and El Salvador), Jamaica has out-dribbled their opponents in each match, and outshot all of their opponents except Mexico.
What that shows is that not only is Jamaica starting to look like a new team offensively, one that holds possession and tries to create chances that way, but they’re also comfortable in running at guys to make things happen, something that they didn’t do enough of before.
Because of that, it gives something for Canada to watch out for with that. It’s not something that will be expected to do much damage against this Canadian team, as they’ve become very good at defending in transition, but it’s still an area they’ll have to be careful in.
Especially if they try to hold a lot of the ball, that just increases Jamaica’s odds of being able to catch them on the break, especially after a loose pass or a lost 50/50 in midfield.
Plus, with Jamaica holding more of the ball now, too, out-possessing all of their opponents under Hall except against Mexico, they’ll also be a lot more patient now if those transition moments don’t materialize.
So for Canada, it’s going to be imperative that they avoid many lapses in concentration, both on the ball, and off of it.
On the ball, they’ll have to avoid any sloppy passes or limited off-ball movement, knowing that Jamaica is waiting to get on the ball and go through some of the speedsters that they have, led by the quick Leon Bailey.
And in the occasions where they don’t, choosing to hold the ball, that’s where Canada’s work off the ball will be key, as they’ll need to ensure that they don’t sit back too much and let Jamaica control good chunks of the game.
A few months ago, it’d have been wild to imagine typing that, but that just shows how much of a different team they’ve been under Hall, who has given them a bit of swagger back in their performances.
They haven’t gotten the results to show for it yet, sitting with 3 losses and 1 draw in those 4 games, but it feels like they’re coming, slowly but surely.
Considering that Andre Gray scored in transition against El Salvador Thursday, picking up their first points in the Hall era, it shows how the tide is turning for them right now, giving something for Canada to watch out for.
Be ready to capitalize on your chances:
And speaking of the results not being there for Jamaica, that’s something that Canada will want to look and capitalize on right now.
For whatever reason, Jamaica can’t stop finding ways to throw away the good work they do in games, often leaving their opponents chances to win games, which in CONCACAF, it’s dangerous.
So for Canada, it feels like they’ll have chances to break the game open, but they’ll have to be ruthless when those opportunities come, allowing them to break Jamaica’s spirit and grab control of the game plan.
Considering that Jamaica has given up 6 big chances in their 4 games under Hall despite just giving up 10 shots a match (albeit, their most recent game, a 1-1 draw against El Salvador, saw them finish without conceding any), they seem prone to giving up one or two glorious opportunities a game, a habit they’ve been slowly looking to break from the Whitmore era.
As a result, Canada is going to need to find a way to make the most of those chances that will be expected to come for them. Part of the reason that they lost to Costa Rica, a result that didn’t just put Canada’s World Cup qualification on pause, but also snapped their bid to finish this World Cup qualifying cycle undefeated, is because they didn’t finish the opportunities that they got in San Jose.
There, despite being down to 10-men for most of the game, they actually created the better chances than their hosts, but just didn’t make the most of them. Instead, they were left to lament rattling the woodwork on two golden occasions from Tajon Buchanan and Jonathan David, while Costa Rica made the most of their best opportunity of the game when Celso Borges headed home the eventual winner in the first half, which ended up being the difference.
And that was frustrating, because while you had to be pleased with Canada’s overall performance in that game in a tough scenario, it was just unusual to see Canada not will those balls into the back of the net, as they’ve seemingly done for most of the Octo, leading teams there with 19 goals go for.
To be fair to Canada, they’d also rode their luck a bit to get those goals, as while their over-performance of Expected Goals (xG) of nearly 5 goals is impressive, it also shows that maybe Canada were due to return to the mean a bit in this game. Especially after how they ended the last window, a perfect 9/9 point run despite having no Alphonso Davies, with Atiba Hutchinson scoring with his back for the winner in the last game against El Salvador, it only felt right that Canada had that luck catch up to them.
This time out, however, they’ll want to go out and prove that was just a fluke, and not a sign of what’s to come, especially against this Jamaican team, one prone to allowing a big chance or two.
Knowing that they’ll have 30 000+ fans pushing them on to bag the goals required to not just get to Qatar, but get there in style, how they take those chances will be the key in how they get on here.
So from their perspective, they’ll want to get back to what they’ve done the rest of the Octo, especially when they’ve been at home, allowing them to capitalize on this still-growing Jamaican defence, all while giving their home fans plenty to cheer about.
Looking Forward:
But overall, though, this should be a good game. Given the absences on the Jamaica side, Canada’s home field advantage, the fire they’ll have after their first loss, and, of course, the looming World Cup qualification, Canada are the favourites yes, but don’t count on the Reggae Boyz quite yet.
As they showed with their draw against El Salvador on Thursday, which actually eliminated them from World Cup contention, they’re not here just to go through the motions and finish the Octo with barely a whimper, but instead go out swinging.
So although this Canadian team should be able to go toe-to-toe with them and get a pretty straightforward knockout, this Jamaican team has sneaky punching power, and will be expected to have something up their sleeve here.
Because of that, it’ll be important for Canada to give them the respect that they deserve, ensuring that they can book their World Cup qualification in style, while also kickstarting a party to remember in Canada.
Canada’s Cyle Larin and Kamal Miller look on ahead of Canada’s clash with Costa Rica Thursday (Canada Soccer/MexSport)