Projecting a CanMNT squad for the October World Cup qualifying window
The CanMNT is getting set to drop their squad for October’s World Cup qualifiers later this week. In this, I take a stab at projecting their roster.
It still feels like it was just a few weeks ago that the last window ended, yet the next one is already just around the corner.
As a busy club schedule continues to roll along, we’re all of sudden less than 10 days out from the CanMNT’s next World Cup qualifying match, a crucial clash with Mexico at the Azteca.
So with that coming up so quickly here, that means that we are probably days away from getting news on the latest Canadian squad for those games, as head coach John Herdman is probably close to finalizing his roster ahead of then.
But with such a short turnaround between the September games and these October ones, a big question remains - how much change will we see in this Canadian squad?
Obviously, Herdman has a group of guys that he can trust, and he made that clear in the last window, but at the same time, there are some guys making things real tough for him at the moment.
Along with the fact that players are slowly starting to drop like flies due to injuries with how congested their schedules are this year, he might be forced into some changes, too, meaning that this October squad could have a bit of a different look compared to September’s outfit.
Because of that, it makes projecting Canada’s squad a tough piece of business, as it’s tough to get inside of Herdman’s head as he ponders these sorts of decisions.
That doesn’t mean that we can’t try, though. In the first piece on ‘Destroy and Progress’, here’s my best stab at a projected 23 and 26-man roster for these World Cup qualifiers, and why I think we might see certain players come in.
Injury woes:
First, though, it’s important to address the fact that there might be some forced changes from the last squad purely because of injury, so we’ll make sure to highlight which players whose health status remains questionable right now, at least as of writing (as that list can quickly grow).
At centre back, Scott Kennedy looks to be questionable after being removed from his latest Jahn Regensburg game with a bit of a knock, so while Regensburg plays this upcoming weekend, it’s hard to know if he’ll be on the pitch with his teammates by then.
In midfield, Atiba Hutchinson has picked up a bit of a thigh strain, one strong enough to keep Besiktas out of their midweek UCL tie with Ajax this week, which at his age, certainly makes him a doubt to travel for Canada. With Hutchinson, you can’t rule him out until you see it in writing, but it certainly looks like it might be hard for him to recover in time for these games, meaning that Herdman might be looking for a replacement in midfield.
Up front, Hutchinson’s club teammate, Cyle Larin, is also dealing with a similar thigh issue to his fellow Canadian, one that has kept him out for a bit of time already. Because of that, he’s further ahead in his recovery, but also missed out on Besiktas’s midweek tie with Ajax, making him a doubt as well.
(Update: Milan Borjan has also now tested positive for COVID. That also puts him in doubt for this window. )
Otherwise, though, everyone from the last camp seems to be pretty healthy, including Alphonso Davies, who had to leave that window early after picking up a knock, which is good news for Herdman, because while losing Kennedy, Hutchinson and Larin would hurt, Canada does have the depth to overcome such absences.
(Canada celebrates their victory over El Salvador) (Keveren Guillou)
The squad:
So operating under the premise that those 3 might miss out, here’s how I project this Canadian squad might look.
Goalkeepers: Milan Borjan, Maxime Crepeau, James Pantemis
To start, we begin in goal, where the choice looks to be pretty straightforward for Herdman.
Up first, you have the veteran, Borjan, who played all 3 games for Canada the last window, conceding just 2 goals, all while making some big saves along the way.
With the increased travel this window, you wonder if he might get a bit of rest this time, but seeing that he’s just been plugging away with Red Star, helping them pick up victories, he’ll be expected to start at least 2 or 3 of these 3 matches for Canada.
But if Borjan doesn’t end up making it because of COVID, Canada still has Maxime Crepeau, who has been putting up fantastic numbers with the Vancouver Whitecaps, and helped Canada immensely at the Gold Cup.
Arguably ready to be the #1 already, he’s yet to really get a shot at holding that title other than at the Gold Cup, mostly due to Borjan’s good play, so you can only wonder if he might get some minutes in this camp should Borjan need a rest.
Lastly, you’ve got James Pantemis, who continues to plug away for CF Montreal, making him an easy choice for 3rd goalkeeper. Until Dayne St.Clair starts playing again for Minnesota, this 3rd goalkeeper spot is his to lose, making him feel like a lock for this camp.
Centre Backs: Steven Vitoria, Doneil Henry, Kamal Miller, Derek Cornelius
Otherwise, moving up to the centre backs, we’ve mostly got the same group as the last camp, with just one change.
First, there’s Steven Vitoria, who has quietly become a key leader on this Canadian team, making him a lock to fill in at the back.
At his age, he won’t start every game for Canada, especially considering their growing depth at his position, but when he does play, you know he’ll give you a shift, making him a key piece for Herdman.
Then, we’ve got Doneil Henry, who remains an important name on this Canadian team despite being one of the more polarizing players on the roster.
As we saw last camp, when deployed in the right position, he can be lethal at the back, so although he might not be Canada’s #1 guy, he can fill in and do a job when needed.
Otherwise, Kamal Miller is basically a lock at this stage, as he’s continued to plug away for CF Montreal, helping them have a good season.
Plus, based on what we saw from him last camp, he arguably won a starting spot over Kennedy based on his play, so not only will he be expected to be on the list, but he’ll be expected to play a good chunk of minutes this window, too.
Lastly, but most definitely not least, there’s Derek Cornelius, who is a candidate to return to the Canadian fold for the first time since 2019, as he’s adjusted nicely to life in the Greek 1st division, where’s he’s currently on loan with Panetolikos.
So far, he’s been starting all of their games, helping them sit 7th in the table as of writing, which is a lot higher than the relegation zone, where they were originally projected to finish.
Because of that, with Kennedy likely to be out, it makes him an easy candidate to replace him, especially considering that they’re both left-footed, as Cornelius has been good enough to earn consideration even before Kennedy picked up his knock.
Full Backs: Alphonso Davies, Richie Laryea, Alistair Johnston, Sam Adekugbe
Moving down, we’ve then got the full backs, which much like the centre backs, pretty much pick themselves at this stage.
First, you’ve got Alphonso Davies, Canada’s star man, who will be expected to play a good chunk of minutes this camp.
Obviously, some might be a bit worried after what went down with him and Bayern Munich the last camp, but that was more a case of them being concerned about their prized asset potentially picking up an injury, so as long as he avoids any knocks, he should play a big role across all 3 games this time around.
Then, you’ve got Richie Laryea, who’s continued to plug away for Toronto despite their struggles this season, consistently finding a way to play a big role for them in games. After playing every minute in the last window for Canada, that’s made him a lock here, and his form has been strong enough to deserve it.
Moving down, you’ve then got Alistair Johnston, who has arguably been Canada’s biggest breakout star this year, emerging as a very reliable centre back and right back option for Herdman.
Having recently scored his first MLS goal, he’s also been in good form for his club, and having played every minute of last window, he’ll be leaned upon to fill a similar role for Canada this time around.
Lastly, you’ve then got a player that has a lot of people intrigued at the moment, and that’s Sam Adekugbe, who has adjusted nicely to his move to Hatayspor in Turkey, helping them sit 5th in the Turkish Super Lig as of writing.
Seeing that he put up one of the best performances of September’s camp in Canada’s game against the US, he deserves more of a look in October, so even though he’ll be in tough considering his main competition for a spot is Davies, we could even see Herdman play both of them on the field at once, freeing up Davies a bit.
Midfielders: Stephen Eustaquio, Mark Anthony Kaye, Jonathan Osorio, Samuel Piette, David Wotherspoon, Liam Fraser, Michael Baldisimo
Shifting over to the midfielders, much like with the full backs, these also kind of pick themselves, although there could be the potential for some new faces.
Up first, you’ve got Canada’s ironman, Stephen Eustaquio, who has been racking up the minutes for both club and country this year.
Obviously, you worry a bit about his health, but the good news is that he was forced to rest recently for Pacos, having been suspended for picking up a red card, so he’ll actually be fresher than usual this camp, which considering that he played almost every minute in September, is good news for Herdman and Canada.
Then, you’ve got Mark Anthony Kaye, who has continued to be in really good form for the Colorado Rapids, where he’s adjusted seamlessly after his surprise midseason trade to the club.
After not playing as much as some would’ve expected the last window, that’s likely to change this camp, especially with Hutchinson’s health in doubt, which is good news for Canada, who always look good when Kaye is on the pitch.
Otherwise, we’ve then got Jonathan Osorio, who much like Laryea, remains as one of the bright lights in an otherwise dim season for Toronto, playing a big role for them.
As we saw last camp, when he plays for Canada, he brings a new look to the field, so look for him to carry over what he does for his club to Canada this window, helping their midfield shine.
Creeping down the list, David Wotherspoon is up next, as he’s become a lock on this Canadian team when healthy, remaning in good form for his club, while also carving out a reputation as a workhorse in training and in games for Canada when he’s called upon.
So even though he didn’t get much playing time last camp, other than a cup of coffee in the 3rd game, he should have a bigger role this camp, especially as players start to tire out as their seasons roll on.
That leads to the next name, Liam Fraser, who much like Wotherspoon, was in the last camp, but barely played (in fact, he didn’t play at all).
Despite that, though, he’s a very likely call-up for this window again, as Herdman likes what he brings to the table, and with Canada’s midfield depth being a bit stretched out at the moment, having someone playing regularly in MLS, as Fraser currently does with Columbus, isn’t the worst thing to have on the roster.
Lastly, we’ve then got my biggest surprise projection, and that’s Michael Baldisimo, who’d be earning his first nod to a Canada camp, should he actually be called upon.
It’d be a bit of a surprise to see him ahead of a name such as Scott Arfield, but considering that Arfield’s minutes have been sparse for Rangers as of late, and that Hutchinson’s potential absence would leave a hole in midfield, it’d make sense to call up someone like Baldisimo, who is a tempo-setting #6.
Plus, by having him in the squad, you can integrate him into the fold, while also holding the opportunity to cap-tie him, making it a win-win for Canada.
Will Herdman do that at this stage? It’s unlikely, but when looking at other options to fill in at this position for Canada, such as Harry Paton, Noble Okello or Arfield, Baldisimo has as good of a case as any of them to earn a nod.
Forwards: Jonathan David, Lucas Cavallini, Tajon Buchanan, Junior Hoilett, Liam Millar
Last down the list, you’ve then got the forwards, where much like at the other positions, you’ve got a pretty established group, even if Larin misses out.
To start, you’ve got your crown jewel up front, Jonathan David, who has been on fire for Lille as of late, scoring goals for fun there.
Having finished the September window on a high note for Canada, he’s continued that form into club play, racking up goals in the past few weeks, making him one to watch.
Elsewhere, we’ve then got Canada’s big wildcard this window, and that’s Lucas Cavallini, who always finds ways to score goals for his country.
In the midst of a tough run of form at his club, though, where he’s been slow out of the gates after recovering from an injury, he needs a good run of form to get his confidence back, and if Larin isn’t here, Cavallini might just get the opportunity to go on a run like that by eating up some of those minutes left behind by the Beikstas man.
Otherwise, we’ve got one of Canada’s most in-form players at the moment, Tajon Buchanan, who has been racking up goals with the New England Revolution.
Having had a statement game in the last match of the September window, where had a goal and an assist against El Salvador, he’ll look to build off that form for Canada in this window, where Herdman will need him to score some goals for his team.
Moving down the list, we’ve then got Junior Hoilett, who has quietly been in a nice run of form as of late, carving out a role as a ket starter at his new club, Reading.
He’s yet to get off the mark for them, but he’s become a key part of how they look to play, and as a key leader on this Canadian team, that’s good news for Herdman.
Lastly, we’ve then got a new face, and that’s Liam Millar, who looks set to get back into the Canadian squad after missing out on the last few camps.
Finally up and running with his new club, FC Basel, where he’s been scoring goals and racking up assists after a slow start, he can add a bit of punch to an attack that could use a bit of it, especially if Larin misses out.
A favourite of Herdman’s, you could only wonder when he’d make his return to the squad, as he’s always found a way to play well for his country, and it looks like that opportunity will come this camp, thanks to his recent run of form.
(Tajon Buchanan reacts after Jonathan David scored vs El Salvador) (Keveren Guillou)
Possible fill-ins: Joel Waterman, Scott Arfield, Jacob Shaffelburg, Noble Okello
But while those are the 23 that I’d expect to be on the list put out by Herdman later this week, as can be the case with these sort of squads, you always have to be ready for a surprise.
For example, might Herdman decide to call in a 26-man squad, seeing that he’s already losing bodies to injury? It’s unlikely, given that he basically called up a 22-man squad last time around, but it’s on the table.
So if he were to do that, these are some of the names I’d expect.
First, Joel Waterman certainly deserves a shout, as he’s quietly grown into a key part of CF Montreal’s backline after they dealt with some absences.
A ball-playing right-footed centre back, he also fits a position of need for Canada, making this an intriguing match.
Otherwise, Scott Arfield will always remain a quality option, as he’d fill a key position of need for Canada at attacking midfield.
The main worry with him, though? He isn’t playing enough for Rangers right now, and considering that Herdman likes his players to be playing regularly, that might see him miss out here.
Elsewhere, Jacob Shaffelburg might just be one of Canada’s biggest risers as of late, as he’s been playing out of his skin for Toronto FC, showing some great growth as a player.
For a Canadian team surprisingly thin on the wing, that could make him an option worth considering, especially if Herdman chooses to run a 3-4-2-1 at any point.
Lastly, Shaffelburg’s TFC teammate, Noble Okello, could also be an option to fill in here, especially if Hutchinson is out, as he’s a good option to fill in at both the #6 and #8.
Back and playing regularly for TFC after a short stint with their 2nd team, he’s someone that Herdman has praised in the past, making him one to consider.
But while those names could all slip into the picture, there could be some other surprises.
2 of them I could see are Montreal teammates, Mathieu Choiniere and Zachary Brault-Guillard, who I didn’t list here, as Canada’s full back depth is strong, but that’s not from a lack of good play from them.
On a good Montreal team, they’ve been played a big role in their success, putting them on Canada’s radar, even if they don’t earn a nod this time around.
Looking Forward:
So there we have it - my projected squad for Canada’s World Cup qualifiers in October.
Will I be right? Probably not, and I’ll address the surprises in my usual ‘surprise rating’ article on btsvancity.com, but that’s the fun of an exercise such as this one.
Either way, injuries or not, Canada should have a strong squad, one that has a good chance of picking up at least 6 or 7 points this window, especially if they play to the best of their ability.
For a Canadian side that hasn’t always had that luxury in the past, it’s a nice feeling, one that they’ll look to carry onto the pitch next month.
(Have any thoughts on the lineup? Drop your projected 23 in the comments!)
(You can subscribe to ‘Destroy and Progress for just $5 dollars a month, or $48 dollars a year, to earn access to everything Canadian soccer!)
(Canada celebrates a goal vs El Salvador) (Keveren Guillou)