Day-After Thoughts from the CanMNT’s 1-0 loss to Panama to close out the Octo
The CanMNT ended off the Octo on Wednesday with a clash vs Panama. In our final 'Day-After thoughts' of this final round, I look back at what stood out from that one.
It wasn’t the way they wanted things to end.
At the same time, that shouldn’t put a damper on what was a fantastic CONCACAF World Cup qualifying campaign for the CanMNT, who officially ended their 20-game journey through that process on Wednesday against Panama.
And while they ended that game by suffering just their second defeat in those 20 games, don’t be fooled by that - this was a special run from Canada.
Entering this campaign just looking to snap a men’s World Cup drought that dated back to 1986, it was expected that they’d maybe find a way to sneak in the back door this cycle, if at all.
But instead, they blew those expectations right out of the water, going undefeated in all but two games, qualifying for the 2022 World Cup Qatar as CONCACAF’s top team.
Which for a team that hadn’t even reached the final round of qualifiers this millennium, much less get close to the World Cup, is massive, as it was the exact sort of jump that supporters have long expected them to one day take.
So now, thanks to that, they’ll be at the big dance later this year, where after the run that they’ve been on, they’ll be expecting to surprise some of the big established powers.
Therefore, while things didn’t end the way that they hoped down in Panama, where they suffered a tough 1-0 loss, things are on the up for this Canadian side, who are the talk of the world right now.
But before we look ahead to what now awaits this Canadian team, such as the World Cup draw (which goes on Friday), let’s take a look back at what stood out from this Panama game, in my last edition of ‘Day-After’ thoughts from this qualifying cycle.
While the result might not have been what Canada was hoping for, that wasn’t as if Canada struggled in this game, as other than a slow start and one defensive lapse of concentration, they did what they needed to at least grab a point.
Alas, they came up short, but that’s not a bad thing, as for a team that had done so much winning this past year, it was a good reality check, one they’ll hope bodes well for them as they get set for what lies ahead.
So seeing all of that, here’s a look at some of what stood out from this match, one that despite being a dead-rubber game, still had a lot of life in it.
Canada comes out on wrong end of low-event game:
But while the game certainly ended quite frantically, it didn’t always look like it’d be that way, especially at the beginning.
Because of that, it overall arguably ended up being one of Canada’s more low-event games of the Octo, especially when you look at the statistics.
In fact, just to get an idea of how so, consider this - of the 14 games that Canada played this Octo, the cumulative Expected Goals (xG) of 1.54 that these teams combined for was the lowest of any game that Canada played in.
Yet that just shows what kind of game it was.
Despite there being an expectation that both teams would come out flying, as Canada looked to really cement their spot atop the Octo and push into Pot 3 for the World Cup draw, while Panama looked to avenge a tough loss to Canada from October, instead it really ended up looking a lot more like a game between a team already eliminated and one going to the World Cup.
Especially in the first half, where the xG was just 0.08 to 0.05 to Panama, it really felt like both teams just didn’t have any sort of intent to come out and win the game, making you wonder if a draw would be the likely outcome.
The good news, however, was that teams then woke up after that, as the xG finished 0.78 to 0.76 for Panama, showing how both teams found their legs in the second half.
But unfortunately for Canada, they’d come out on the wrong side of that, as while they were quite competitive, Panama was then able to grab a lead through Gabriel Torres right in the 49th minute, giving them an edge for the rest of the half.
So while Canada will look at the fact that Cyle Larin had a goal disallowed late on (it was the right call, to be fair), they did themselves no favours with their slow start, and that left them to chase the rest of the way.
And as they’ll know from the rest of the Octo, when they would often out chance teams, you aren’t going to pick up many results on a night where they only had 6 shots (1 on target).
They did well to make sure they were high-quality looks, to be fair, finishing with 5 shots inside the box and 2 big chances, but for a team that has done a good job of combining shot quality and volume, they didn’t leave themselves the sort of margin for error that they’ve mostly done a good job of doing this round, in which they’ve averaged just under 1.6 xG a game.
Because of that, while Canada will feel that they could’ve done enough to grab a point on most nights, the margins are always extra fine on these CONCACAF away days, something they got a harsh reminder of on Wednesday.
To be fair, for a team that was probably hungover from such a big achievement on the weekend, (in the figurative sense, mostly) that was to be expected, but at the same time, it was a good learning lesson, one that they’ll look to take into what lies ahead.
Alistair Johnston finishes memorable Octo on high note:
But while Canada’s attack wasn’t at its usual standard, it was still a pretty solid night for the defence other than a goal, and one name that shone brightly in that regard was the always-reliable Alistair Johnston.
Yet, that’s just been the sort of thing he’s done all Octo for Canada, one of just two players to play in every game for Les Rouges this round, showing his consistency.
Be it as a right back, a centre back or even as a left back, he hasn’t looked out of place in any of his roles, just finding a way to step up every game.
And this game was just yet another example of that.
Despite having to play a Panamanian side that was looking to do damage in transition all night, Johnston was playing like Canada hadn’t already qualified, making some huge last-ditch tackles, giving life to his team with some big interventions.
As a result, he finished with an impressive 6 interceptions and 5 tackles, which for a full back/outside centre back, doesn’t get much better than that. Along with the 9 out of 11 duels that he won, including 7 of 8 ground duels, he hardly set a foot wrong defensively, bailing his team out of some key moments.
Plus, he helped his team a fair bit going forward, as well, adding a key pass, a dribble and completed 38 out of 43 of his passes (88%) despite dealing with Panama’s high press all night, which are also tidy numbers, making him a good shout for Canada’s best performer in this game.
But for those who have been following Johnston since he made his debut in March of last year, it was just another night at the office for the Montreal right back.
No matter the occasion, he seems to find a way to step up in big moments for this Canadian team, and that’s been huge, as he’s contributed to their defence, which finished with the fewest goals against in the Octo with 7, all while never conceding more than a goal in a game.
Through his play in 1v1s, which he never seems to lose, to his proficiency at finding passing lanes, he can defend in many different ways, which we don’t often see from defenders. He might struggle in the air at times, yes, but he makes up for that by his willingness to get stuck in, and not miss tackles.
Which along with his play in possession, has made him a key all-around tool for Canada, who see him like a swiss-army knife, one they can wield in different ways depending on the game.
So as Canada gets set to head to the World Cup later this year, keep an eye on Johnston, as it feels like the 23-year-old is just getting started, with games like this Panama being a prime example of why.
What’s next for Canada?
But now, with the Octo done for Canada, it’ll be interesting to see what happens next for them.
Obviously, the main goal is to now go play in the World Cup later this year, but with that not coming until November, that leaves Canada with several months to finalize their preparations for that.
And based on the FIFA and CONCACAF calendar, it looks like that’ll mean officially playing 4 games in June, before playing 2 games in September, leading into the World Cup itself in November (where Canada might have a tune-up game or two before then, as well).
So for Canada, to know who they’ll potentially play in those games, it’s a mix of them finding opponents for friendlies and seeing how some things play out.
For example, in June, they’ll be slated to play Nations League games, but with them being in League A, meaning that they play fewer games than the other Leagues (given that their group for that will consist of just 3 teams), they’ll only have to play in a maximum of 2 or 3 of the 4 games available for them in June, leaving them with the chance to schedule 1 or 2 friendlies on top of that.
Then, in September, they’ll have a chance to play 2 more friendlies, with Brazil or Argentina looking like real possibilities based on rumblings, among others who will surely also enter discussions.
And from there, that’ll lead nicely into the World Cup itself, having given them a decent amount of preparation time for what lies ahead of them there.
(Speaking of which, we’ll learn their draw for that on Friday, so it’s worth noting that a lot of Canada’s plans will be expected to be based on that.)
So because of that, while the big part of the job is done for Canada in terms of getting to the World Cup, the preparation towards that now starts nearly right away, meaning that the fun is just getting started for them in that regard.
Which after the run they’ve been on, is huge, as it’ll give them a chance to continue and build on what has already been a huge year for them.
Looking Forward:
So seeing that, keep an eye out on the draw Friday, before staying tuned for what happens with Canada’s Nations League draw, as well as any potential friendlies.
Now that they’re in the World Cup, things are going to start happening quite quickly here, but that’s just the nature of being in a tournament like that.
But after a journey like this one, it’s something that Canada has long been waiting for, and based on their play, it’s one that they’re hungry for.
So even though their journey ended on a bit of a sour note down in Panama, that shouldn’t derail what will be a busy and exciting few months for this team, as they look to build off of what they’ve already started just by making it this far.
Canada’s Maxime Crépeau looks on during their clash against Panama (Canada Soccer)