Analyzing the CanMNT's tactical profile ahead of their massive October World Cup qualifiers
The CanMNT returns to action this week. Ahead of then, I break down their tactical profile, and look at what they might do in that department this window.
They’re ready to pick up where they left off last time out.
As they get set to take on their next 3 games of the Octo, the final round of CONCACAF’s World Cup qualifiers, the CanMNT are looking to continue to build off of what they showed in their first 3 games of the Octo, which overall went pretty well for John Herdman’s side.
After a slow start to the Octo, one where they stumbled out of the gates slightly with a 1-1 draw at home to Honduras, they recovered nicely to draw the United States away 1-1, before finishing on a high note with a 3-0 win at home over El Salvador, making for a decent window.
It could’ve been better, but considering that they currently sit 2nd out of 8 teams in this stage, it could’ve also been a lot worse, overall making it a good start.
But now, the going gets tough. With a hard set of games awaiting them over the next week, in which they must face Mexico and Jamaica away, before returning home to take on a plucky Panama side at home, Canada are going to be thrown into the deep end this window, and have to be ready for such.
So while they've called up a pretty solid squad to tackle these games, it’s important that they put together a good tactical plan to help them do so, because if they don’t, as they learned the last camp, that can make a big difference.
They overall did a pretty good job of coming up with the right plan in the last window, especially in their last 2 games against the US and El Salvador, but they got things wrong against Honduras, and it cost them in what could’ve easily been a winnable game.
Because of that, it’s imperative that they take what they learned from those games, and apply it to this upcoming window.
So with that in mind, here’s a look at what they should take away from that window heading into this next set of games, including what went wrong against Honduras, and what they corrected in time for that El Salvador game.
What happened versus Honduras:
To start, let’s dive into that game versus Honduras.
Of the games that Canada played the last window, it’s probably the one to forget, but at the same time, they showed a lot of interesting things, both good and bad.
First, let’s dive into some of the good.
To start, Canada actually did a pretty good job at attacking Honduras in wide areas, finding a way to isolate Honduran defenders before attacking them in space. Seeing that Honduras clogged up the middle, that Canada chose to shift out wide is a good thing, because otherwise, there was next to nothing happening in midfield.
The big problem for Canada in their approach? They didn’t do anything in those wide areas, as they often made the wrong decision whenever they’d find a rare bit of space.
Here are some examples of that.
First, here’s a situation where Alphonso Davies did so well to get down the touchline, as he likes to do, before attempting to play in a cross.
Despite having a few options on the cutback, however, he went for more of a diagonal low cross, one that was easily snuffed out by the Honduran defenders.
And that wasn’t the only time that he did that.
In this clip, he tried to play an earlier ball, but instead of going for a cutback, he went for an audacious low cross, one that was easily claimed by the Honduran goalkeeper.
I think you can sense a theme here.
Moving onto the next clip, which was probably the most egregious example of Canada’s inability to get the ball from out wide into the box in that Honduran game, we truly see what bogged down Canada that night.
Despite a phenomenal run from Davies, he was just unable to recognize that there were no options for the low cross, and it killed a good opportunity, as he just tried to play a ball that wasn’t there.
Instead of going for a shot, or trying a cutback, he waited a lot longer than he needed to, nullifying the chance.
And he wasn’t the only one having that problem that night.
In the next clip, Richie Laryea does such a good job to turn his defender, and open up a bit of space for himself, but he just couldn’t find a way to play the right ball in time, wasting the chance.
But the good news out of all this?
These mistakes can be fixed. It’s one thing to make the wrong decision in the final third, but it’s a whole other thing to struggle to get there in the first place.
You’d much rather see Canada struggle with the former than the latter, so it was almost good to see them have problems with that final ball, as they were at least doing a good job at creating that opportunity in the first place.
When you’ve got players such as Davies, Laryea and Tajon Buchanan, who have made a habit of being able to consistently play that killer ball in their careers, you’d expect them to not have that problem on most nights, showing that this was unfortunately an off night.
So if anything, if we are to shift to the stuff that was more problematic that game, the bigger concern was their struggles in the middle of the park, as they were uncharacteristically quiet there in this game.
There might be no better example of that than the clip below, one where despite having a bit of controlled possession, they just couldn’t make anything happen, stuck passing the ball around the perimeter in chase of an opening.
There were countless examples of this sort of clip, so I won’t bore you with any other examples of that, but let’s just say it wasn’t what we’re used to seeing out of this Canadian team, who tends to control the middle in most games that they play.
Due to them deploying just 2 central midfielders, instead of the usual 3 that they like to play with, they lost a bit of the superiority that they tend to have in that area of the park, so in a sense, it shouldn’t have been so surprising to see them struggle as a consequence of that.
That’s not to say that they didn’t have glimpses of joy in the middle of the park, but even those went fleeting, as they just struggled to play that right ball when they got into those areas, making unforced turnovers like the one below.
So if we’re to summarize how this game went for Canada, let’s just put it this way - they played right into Honduras’s game plan, and it cost them.
Honduras went into that game with the idea that they’d sit deep behind the ball, taking away the middle from Canada, instead daring them to beat them down the flanks.
Considering that Canada barely got anything going in the middle, often got caught making the wrong pass out wide, and kept turning the ball over unnecessarily, it was a job well done for Honduras, who were full value for their result.
At the same time, though, despite playing one of their worst games all year, Canada still could’ve easily won their game, which is the one silver lining out of all this.
On a different night, Cyle Larin, who happens to be the leading scorer in CONCACAF’s World Cup qualifiers at the moment, buries a chance like this, for example, and they win that game.
He didn’t, as he and his teammates did fluff most of the opportunities that they did create on the night, but in another game you’d expect that to change.
Obviously, their struggles in midfield didn’t help their cause, but despite that, they still made stuff happen, even though you could only wonder how things would look if they showed more midfield superiority.
Lessons learned versus El Salvador:
And the good news after that?
Canada then went and provided an example of what that can look like in the El Salvador game, which was one of their most complete games of the year, if not the most.
After giving up the midfield battle versus Honduras, they returned to a 3-man set-up in this game, and it made a massive difference, as they battered El Salvador in the middle of the park, on both sides of the ball.
First, let’s look at the defensive side of things.
We didn’t touch on that side of things in the Honduras game, but it’s worth noting that Canada actually defended relatively well in that one, winning the Expected Goals (xG) battle there 2.39-1.37. Considering that ~0.78 of that xG came from a penalty, which was the avenue via which Honduras got their lone goal, they in reality gave up less than 0.6 xG worth of opportunities, most of them non-threatening ones.
Then, after giving up 1.8 xG in the US game, they managed to then hold El Salvador to an impressive 0.24 xG in the last game, barely giving them a sniff across the 90 minutes.
So with that, the question is presented - what did Canada do so well defensively against El Salvador?
And to answer, it was basically a continuation of what’s worked for them so well this year - they closed down space efficiently in every area of the field.
There’s a reason why Canada has only conceded 8 goals in 14 games this year, and they showed why in the El Salvador game, where they did so well to put their opponents under pressure, a hallmark of their game.
Here are some examples of that.
First, they’d initiate their press high up the field, forcing El Salvador to make quick decisions, which didn’t often end well for their opponents.
If that failed, they then tracked back with intent, making sure to apply strong secondary pressure in the midfield as soon as El Salvador tried to enter that area of the pitch.
Otherwise, if El Salvador did manage to break through that, Canada threw everyone behind the ball, and then initiated their press once again, as they attempted to force an error out of El Salvador before they got into too dangerous of an area.
And lastly, if all else failed, they initiated what we’ll dub ‘operation swarm’, throwing everything at their opponents if they somehow broke through all that pressure, stopping things before it got too late.
Thanks to that approach, which involved every player on the pitch, and saw Canada maintain pressure in different areas, it meant that El Salvador needed to be basically perfect in order to fashion a good chance of their own, and as seen by the xG numbers earlier, they mostly failed to do that.
Plus, Canada’s strong defensive play translated over into other areas of their game, too, which was nice to see.
As a wise person once said, a good offence is a good defence, and Canada took that philosophy to heart against El Salvador, attempting to launch the ball forward every time they won the ball.
Just look at their opening goal against El Salvador, as an example.
After a beautiful bit of pressure to catch their opponents in possession high up the pitch, they then sent numbers forward in a hurry, allowing them to catch out their opponents, who had sent numbers forward the other way right before.
Thanks to that, and a nice passage of passing, that led to Canadian defensive midfielder, Atiba Hutchinson, being in a position to tap the ball into the net, marking a fantastic team goal, one that all originated from a defensive action.
Throughout the night, that’d become a common theme, too, as Canada looked to push forward every time that they won the ball, and it allowed them to put El Salvador to the sword.
Just look at this clip below as an example.
After Atiba Hutchinson did well to win the ball, he then waves Tajon Buchanan forward when he realized that his Canadian teammate was considering passing the ball backwards, instead telling him to get forward and catch out their opponents.
It didn’t lead to a goal, but they were able to get a decent chance thanks to that, all originating from the work that they did on the defensive side of things.
Otherwise, though shifting to the offensive side of things, it’s worth noting that Canada was much more patient than they were against Honduras, allowing them to fashion together some pretty impressive sequences of possession.
Just take this sequence, as an example.
Thanks to some lovely off-the-ball movement, some good progressive passing, and good patience, Canada were able to carve through El Salvador from a controlled position, and while they didn’t turn it into a goal, it was still quite nice to see from them.
Moving on, here’s another example of that.
Despite being in a position where there wasn’t much available to them, Canada were able to cycle the ball around a few times before capitalizing on a bit of space created by that movement, which allowed Jonathan Osorio to get a decent look at goal.
So overall, it was just a complete performance from Canada, who did a good job of doing what they needed to do, on both sides of the ball this time.
Other than a 20 minutes patch before the end of the first half, they played an overall fundamentally sound game of soccer, executing their game plan at a high level.
Compared to the Honduras game, where it felt like how they set-up played into their opponents’ hands, they decided to instead play their game and force El Salvador to adjust in the 3rd game, and it allowed them to pick up the big result.
Because of that, it made one wonder where that sort of play was in that Honduras game, but either way, it was nice to see that they found it before it was too late.
Looking Forward:
And seeing that, it then gives us an idea of how Canada should look to set up in these 3 games.
Obviously, against Mexico, they’ll need to be a bit more conservative, but against Jamaica and Panama, they have no reason to feel inferior in those games, meaning that they should go out and look to play their game to the best of their ability.
As one of the more talented teams in this region, it’s important that they remind teams of that by forcing them to play their way, instead of playing things into their hands.
They have to be ready for what their opponents will try to do, of course, but Canada has to find a way to do that without sacrificing their fundamental principles, especially on the offensive side of things.
So that’ll mean establishing superiority in midfield, making the right decisions in wide areas and continuing to apply pressure high up the field, as they did so well against El Salvador.
If they can do that, you have to fancy their chances, because if not, we could see a repeat of the Honduras game.
But seeing that they grew in every match that they played after that one, you have to feel confident in their ability to do that, which bodes well as they continue their long and winding journey towards the 2022 World Cup, a journey that starts back up again this window.
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Tajon Buchanan runs with the ball against El Salvador (Keveren Guillou)