An unforgettable clincher, bad luck and some unsung performances: Reviewing a memorable end to World Cup qualifiers for the CanMNT
The CanMNT rounded off their 2022 World Cup qualifying cycle in style this past week, booking their ticket to Qatar. Here's my camp review from this latest window.
It was a nice way to wrap up the journey.
After 17 games of hard work, in which they had done everything that was asked of them (and then some), it was all lined up for the CanMNT to finish their World Cup qualifying journey on a high note during this March window.
Sitting atop the ‘Octagonal’, the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, just points away from officially booking a spot in the 2022 men’s World Cup, all that was left for Canada to do last month was to finish the job that they started just over a year ago in Orlando.
And boy did they ever.
With how the results ended up going for them elsewhere, they were able to officially book their spot in the World Cup in the 2nd of 3 games this window, which coincidentally happened to be their lone home match of that 3-game set, setting up a party to remember at Toronto’s BMO Field.
There, in front of a packed crowd, they did something that they’d waited 36 long years to do - qualify for a World Cup. Not only that, they did so in style, too, giving their fans a memorable 4-0 victory over Jamaica to mark the occasion.
And since then, it’s paved the way for a rollercoaster of a week for Canada. From then clinching the top spot in the ‘Octo’ just a few days later, to entering the World Cup draw by the end of the week, where they found out about the 3 teams that they'll now face at that tournament later this year, it’s been a lot of uncharted territory for Canada, but they’ve embraced it.
Having done something that many thought might never happen in this lifetime, it’s led to many deserved celebrations, as Canada has started to revel in the fact that they’re now a soccer nation.
So seeing that, let’s take a step back and dive into the window that made all of this happen for Canada. Funnily enough, it might’ve been their worst statistical window all qualifying, with their 3-point output the lowest they’ve gotten in a window all Octo, but they did everything that they needed to in order to finish the job, having given themselves all sorts of breathing room beforehand.
Because of that, they’ll now find themselves in Qatar later this year, where they’ll now look to continue to shock onlookers, continuing what they’ve done all cycle.
Can they now go on a run at the World Cup? It’s very unlikely, but having accomplished what they did this cycle, you certainly wouldn’t put it past them, as they just continued to find a way to get the job done in the big moments.
Not exactly the way they drew it up:
At the same time, while it was a dream qualifying run for Canada, it’s certainly worth noting that it probably didn’t end the way that they anticipated.
Of course, they achieved their two main goals of the Octo, which were to qualify automatically and finish first in the group, but at the same time, they did miss out on another goal of theirs this window - finish undefeated.
It was always a lofty goal, to be fair, but considering that they entered this window undefeated through 11 games of the Octo, as well as through 17 games of qualifiers, period, it wasn’t that unrealistic, either.
But in this camp, Canada got a taste of something that they hadn’t had much of an interaction with this cycle, at least beyond flashes - some good old bad luck.
Typical of CONCACAF, a region filled with unpredictability, Canada had done a great job of not falling into that trap, taking care of business in earlier rounds with ruthless efficiency, allowing them to avoid those sorts of pitfalls.
This time around, though, they wouldn’t be so lucky, as CONCACAF finally caught up to them.
And there was no better example of that than in the first game. There, down in Costa Rica, they took on a hungry Ticos side, one who despite sitting fifth at the time, were right in the mix of the battle for a top 4 spot heading into this game.
Having erased a nightmare start just to be in that position, this Costa Rica side presented a tough test for Canada, given that the Ticos actually entered that game as the hottest team in the Octo not named Canada at the time.
Which, to give credit to them, they then showed in that game.
In front of their first sold-out crowd all Octo (they’d dealt with crowd restrictions in their previous 5 home games), they played like a team desperate to keep their World Cup hopes alive. Because of that, they were able to come out flying, riding that wave all the way to a 1-0 victory, handing Canada not just their first loss of the Octo, but of qualifiers as a whole.
At the same time, while the scoreline suggests that Canada got grossly outplayed, don’t be fooled by that. After a slow start in the game, as they adjusted to the crowd and conditions, Canada had actually started to run the show for a good chunk of the first half, but only saw that undone when Mark Anthony Kaye picked up a red card in the 34th minute.
Then, that allowed Costa Rica to grab back momentum of the game, and they made the most of it, scoring right in the 45th minute to give themselves a lead before halftime.
And there, despite being up a man, they held on for dear life, as Canada threw everything at them to try and equalize. But there, despite doing everything in their power to try and get that goal, it just wouldn’t come, as Canada found themselves denied by the woodwork twice, with the supremely talented Keylor Navas doing the rest to stymie them in the Costa Rica goal.
So because of that, despite knowing that a win or draw could’ve qualified them for the World Cup that night, they were left to wait for another day.
Which, to be fair, wasn’t the end of the world for them.
Of course, it hurt to see Canada’s undefeated record snapped, but all that meant was that they’d get to now finish the job at home in front of a sold-out crowd, which wasn’t a bad alternative, making you wonder if that was always going to be their destiny.
And nothing that happened on that magical day would suggest otherwise. Right from when those in Toronto woke up, welcomed by a blanket of snow, about as Canadian of a sight as you can see, it seemed like the scene was set for Canada to finish their story in style.
Then, they went out and made that a reality, storming out to an early lead via the right boot of Cyle Larin, who scored his CONCACAF-leading 13th goal of World Cup qualifiers, and then not showing any mercy the rest of the way en route to a memorable 4-0 win.
With that, they were then able to get the parties that they’d put on hold a few days earlier started, knowing that they hadn’t just booked their spot in Qatar, but had done so in about as good of a way as you could do so.
But having finished that job, that didn’t mean that their qualifying journey was quite over yet, as they had to head down to Panama to play their 14th out of 14 games of the Octo.
There, despite it being a supposedly meaningless game on paper, with Canada already in the World Cup and Panama out of contention completely, there was actually a lot at stake for Canada. Knowing that a win or draw would win them the group, which was a big point of pride for them, and that a win would actually bump them up to Pot 3 for the World Cup draw, theoretically giving them an easier draw, there was plenty of incentive to want to grab a result.
That intent wouldn’t prove to be enough, however, as much as they did a week ago in Costa Rica, they’d be forced to watch their hosts storm out to a 1-0 win in front of their home fans. Off the back of a slow start from both teams, Panama was able to grab a timely goal right in the 51st minute, and from there did enough to hang on, as Canada just couldn’t breach the goal other than an offside tally that was rightfully brought back.
The good news, however, was that it wouldn’t prove to hurt Canada too much, as thanks to results elsewhere, they’d still go on and win the Octo, and while they missed out on Pot 3 for the draw, they actually did decently to avoid a ‘Group of Death’ or anything of that like, in the draw proper.
So overall, it was a pretty solid camp for Canada. Yes, the two losses do sting, as it left Canada with just 3 points out of a possible 9, by far their lowest output of any of the 5 windows they had this Octo, but at the same time, it wasn’t as if they played badly in either of the losses they had.
But unlike the last window, where they just got the timely goalscoring and clutch goalkeeping that allowed them to have an unprecedented 9 point window, they had nearly the opposite luck this time around, despite performing rather similarly.
And that’s life in CONCACAF sometimes. Before this, they’d done such a good job of avoiding it, and thanks to that, it gave them the sort of cushion that they needed to avoid disaster, allowing them to finish the job as they did.
Canada celebrates World Cup qualification in style (Canada Soccer/Beau Chevalier)
3 things we learned:
But having seen the story of this window for Canada, let’s now dive into 3 things that we learned about this team during these 3 games, one where they certainly also learned a lot about themselves.
Luck catches up to Canada:
And to start, there’s no better place to begin than with Canada’s luck in this window.
As mentioned earlier, yes, they were probably unlucky to finish with just 3 points this window, but at the same time, it’s not as if they were due something like this.
For example, you can see that in their advanced numbers.
There, despite having some very elite Expected Goals (xG) numbers at both ends of the pitch, Canada was slightly punching above their weight heading into this camp, at least versus what the numbers were expecting them to do.
So to understand that, it’s worth looking at said xG numbers. There, you’d see that entering this window, Canada had 17.05 xG for (1.55/game), and 10.96 xG against (0.99) in 11 games, which were elite numbers, no doubt.
But even though they were elite numbers, Canada was still overperforming those numbers quite significantly, sitting with 19 goals for and 5 goals against, slightly overachieving their offensive numbers, while significantly overachieving defensively.
Because of that, you did wonder if a regression would be on the way, and boy would it be ever.
And funnily enough, it’d actually not come in the area that many would expect it to, which would’ve been the defence, where many felt that Canada was punching way above their weight.
Instead, it’d actually be on the offensive side of things, where Canada just couldn’t buy a goal in the two away games this camp, with the home outburst against Jamaica being the only game where their offence really came alive (and to be fair, that’s probably not something they’ll complain about).
But in the road games, it was about as unlucky as it comes for Canada, who across the games against Costa Rica and Panama, generated 2.29 xG, yet had 0 goals to show for it.
Which combined with the fact that their defence regressed to a perfectly normal mean, as they conceded their 2 goals on a reasonable 1.94 xG (which is worth noting is actually very elite), made it impossible for them to win.
(For reference, Canada obliterated Jamaica 2.8-0.15 in the xG battle in their 4-0 win.)
So for Canada, it was a harsh reminder that no matter how well you play, you need to manage the moments, especially when you’re playing good teams.
Throughout this Octo, they’d been on the right side of that equation, scoring the clutch goals and making the tough stops in big games, but this time around, they had to find themselves on the other side of that.
And that’s not a bad thing.
As seen by the numbers, they still did a very good job in all of these 3 games, and had it not been for two defensive lapses of concentration, that red card and some timely finishing, it’s very possible that this could’ve been another 9-point window.
So ahead of a World Cup where Canada’s success will hinge on how they perform in just a 3-game window, one where the margins will be razor-thin, it’s a good reminder of not only how good they’ll have to be in those games, but how efficient they need to be, too.
But the good news, however, is that they look to have the former figured out given that their numbers were very elite this final round, and given that the latter has mostly not been an issue for them up until this camp, that’s also an area where you’d expect them to not have too many more issues, either.
Central CB depth is something to watch for:
For all of the talk of goals (or lack thereof), however, one area that Canada learned a lot about themselves in this camp was at the back, and more specifically, their middle centre back depth.
Originally seen as a spot of weakness on this team, they quickly proved that wasn’t the case these qualifiers, conceding just 6 goals in their first 17 qualifying games (including just 5 in 11 Octo games) heading into this window, keeping 11 clean sheets and never conceding more than 1 goal in a game (with 6 of those clean sheets coming in the Octo).
Yes, it did help that goalkeepers Milan Borjan and Maxime Crépeau (as well as Dayne St.Clair in the one game he played) had also been very good, but as seen by their xG numbers this Octo, a big part of that came down to the work of the defence.
And there, thanks to the emergence of the likes of Scott Kennedy, Kamal Miller, Derek Cornelius and Alistair Johnston, they were really able to complement Canada’s defensive veterans, Steven Vitoria and Doneil Henry, helping create a pretty solid centre back core.
But while that crew had done a heck of a job up to this point, there was one area of concern with it - the depth beyond those names.
For the most part, it hadn’t been an issue up until this point, as other than a long-term injury to Scott Kennedy that saw him miss 2 camps, there hadn’t been any major absences among those names, but that changed this window.
There, we saw some worries, as Canada suffered a bigger hit than they had faced at this position before, and more specifically at the central centre back position.
First, it came when usual central CB starter, Steven Vitoria, came into this camp with a knock, and while it didn’t appear to be one that would keep him out of too much action, that quickly ended up being false as he missed all 3 games this window.
Which would’ve been all right, but then we saw his central CB backup, Doneil Henry, miss the first game due to suspension, and then was left out of the squad entirely in the third game due to what appeared to be an injury after playing in the second game.
Because of that, it saw Canada have to get creative at that position, as they threw in midfielder, Atiba Hutchinson, as a central CB in both of those away games.
And to give him credit, he did pretty well in both of those games. Only allowing that aforementioned 1.94 xG, and just 2 goals, he most certainly did his job defensively, and added a lot to Canada’s game in possession, doing a great job of replacing Vitoria and Henry.
But despite that, there were some areas where Vitoria and Henry were missed, and that was in the air and in how the backline was organized.
That would be clear on both of the goals that Canada conceded, which both came off of wide balls into the box, as well as several of the chances that they gave up.
Because of that, while Hutchinson also wasn’t helped by the fact that Costa Rica and Panama are two very good teams off those wide balls, we saw why Canada certainly might be wise to start building their depth beyond Vitoria and Henry.
Given that the defensive system they play is mostly centred around playing in a mid-to-low block, limiting opponents from running in behind while making it hard to cross balls in, this really showed how important Vitoria and Henry are to that system.
So if they’re to stick to that system long-term, it’s important that they build up their depth there.
Given that Vitoria can’t stay on the pitch these days, often missing out due to injuries and suspensions, while Henry has also dealt with his fair share of injuries, that is a bit of a worry for a team already thin at the central CB.
As a result, this camp was a good reminder to Canada’s coach, John Herdman, that figuring that out has to be a priority of his ahead of the World Cup at the end of this year.
Be it through finding central CB options within his current crew (on paper, Miller and Cornelius look like worthy candidates), or outside of the current side (right away, someone like Toronto FC’s Lukas MacNaughton stands out), it feels like it’d be wise to do that sooner rather than later, avoiding another scenario like this one.
And the good news is that you’d back Herdman in his quest to do that. Given how good of a job that he’s done to shore up areas of need on this Canadian team in his time in charge, such as at full back, at centre back and in goal, it feels like this shouldn’t be too big of a problem for him.
So look for them to start that quest starting in June, where some key Nations League and friendly games await them, as they look to ensure that they’re fully stocked in that area ahead of what lies ahead later this year.
Junior Hoilett shows value to Canada:
Elsewhere, to shift to more of an individual standpoint, one thing that really stood out from this camp was the play of Junior Hoilett.
Despite entering this camp as a bit more of a forgotten name, one that has quietly slipped under the radar for Canada, he then went out and did something that he had such a good knack of doing these qualifiers - remind people of how good he is.
And with that, he showed everyone why he’ll not only be in Qatar later this year, but will be there to play a big role for this side, too.
He might’ve only played 141 minutes this camp, starting just one of the three games that Canada played (he came off the bench in both of the other games), but when he was on the pitch, you could certainly feel his presence.
In fact, Canada certainly felt it, that’s for sure, as in those 141 minutes that he played, Canada actually outscored their opponents 4-0, and got outscored 2-0 in the ~129 minutes that he wasn’t on.
But that just shows how important he is to this team. He might not always have a starting spot given how deep Canada is up front, but when he’s on, he just brings such a unique package to the table.
Be it through his tight ball control, his ability to open up space for himself and his teammates, his vision and his technical ability, he does such a good job of making things happen offensively, giving Canada a different look in the final third.
So even though he might not be the fastest player anymore, as he was back in the day, he has really grown into a creative player that doesn’t really rely on that, instead using his awareness and skills to get the job done.
And there was no better example of that than in the Jamaica game, where he went the full 90 minutes in Canada’s 4-0 route, scoring a goal and adding a hockey assist in a player of the game performance.
There, the ball just seemed to gravitate to him in wide and central areas, from where he would then find a way to just continuously destabilize that Jamaica defence. Because of that, he’d then be able to open up space for his teammates, and from there, it really gave Canada a strong offensive boost.
Then, in the other games, even though he didn’t start, he did the same thing off the bench, helping Canada mount their late pushes in both games, really changing the attacking dynamic of the team when he was on the pitch.
But that’s just what he’s done all qualifying cycle for Canada. He might not be the flashiest name on this team anymore, but the fact that he had 3 goals and 2 assists in 13 games (but with around 6 or 7 games worth of minutes) shows how valued his contributions were.
Because of that, even though he might not start every game in Qatar, both due to the wealth of attacking options that Canada has, as well as the matchups that they have, you know that he’ll do damage no matter what role he’s in, showing why he remains a huge part of this side right now.
Standout performers:
And continuing on the theme of individuals, it’s only fitting that we’ve now arrived at the standout performers section of this review, as there were several players that certainly stood out for Canada this camp.
So as usual, here’s a look at who shone brightest for Canada in this window.
Player of the Camp: Cyle Larin
And leading things off we have our player of the camp, Larin, who wrapped up an excellent qualifying cycle in a memorable way this camp.
He might’ve ‘only’ scored one goal this camp, yes, but it was a big one, as it stood as the winner in the game that sent Canada to the World Cup, as he found a way to come up clutch for Canada.
But that’s just what he did this entire cycle for this team.
Right from the opening game, where he scored a crucial hat trick in a 5-1 win over Bermuda, right through to this camp, where he fittingly scored the goal that marked the end of the journey, he’s been bagging the goals in bunches for Canada.
Thanks to that, he was able to finish with an impressive 13 goals this cycle, tops in CONCACAF, including an Octo-leading 6 goals, which are both very solid numbers, especially since the former has him just one behind UAE’s Ali Mabkhout for the global World Cup qualifying lead.
And what’s scary is that there could’ve been so many more. For example, he missed 4 games this Octo with injury, and even in this last camp, he actually scored against Panama in the last game, but was ruled to be offside by just a toenail, denying him of the goal that would’ve actually tied him with Mabkhout.
Plus, what was great about this run for Larin was that he found ways to be effective beyond just his goalscoring, as well. It feels funny to say for someone who scored that many goals, yes, but he always found a way to make himself useful whenever he was on the pitch, doing a great job of linking up play, holding up the ball and creating space for his teammates.
So because of that, it feels fitting to give him the nod as ‘Player of the Camp’ for this last camp of the ‘Octo’, as he put quite the bow on a qualifying cycle that he won’t soon forget, for good reason.
Honourable Mention: Junior Hoilett
Breakout Player of the Camp: Tajon Buchanan
Next, we’ve then got our breakout player of the camp, where up steps Buchanan, who despite already being a key player for this Canadian team, really took a step forward this camp.
Be it by scoring the second goal in the Jamaica game, a match in which he also added an assist, or by putting up some veteran performances in both away games, he really had a solid camp, one that might not grab the attention of many, but really highlights his growth as a player as of late.
But that just shows how important his winter move to Club Brugge has been, as he’s slotted in nicely into the Belgian giant’s lineup right from the beginning, and hasn’t looked back since.
And here, he showed some of what he’s learned over his time in Belgium. Already an electric player dating back to his New England Revolution days, he looked a lot more polished this camp, both in the decisions that he made offensively, as well as the work that he did defensively.
Which for Canada, is huge. Obviously, they’re a big fan of the offence, as Buchanan’s 3 goals and 5 assists in qualifying just gives an idea of how key he was to this team on that side of things, but the fact that he’s improved his defence is huge.
Especially given that it’s come at zero cost to his offence, as it now makes him a player that can be trusted in different positions and situations, that gives Herdman another swiss-army knife tactically.
So heading into the World Cup, it really feels like all is set up for Buchanan to play a big role there. If it wasn’t already clear before, he’s a huge part of this team’s core, and will look to really prove that later this year.
Given that it feels like Brugge is just a stepping stone to a bigger club, maybe his performance in that competition can be what it takes for him to make that jump up, and based on the growth that he showed this camp, there’s no reason why that can’t be the case.
Honourable Mention: Ismael Koné
Unsung Hero: Junior Hoilett
Lastly, that leads us to our unsung hero, which given what we explored above, has to be Hoilett.
Which is wild to imagine, as usually attacking players aren’t that unsung, but that shows how Hoilett is an exception, mostly due to the names around him.
So although an honourable mention does go out to Stephen Eustauqio here, as he was so close to nipping this from Hoilett, especially given how solid he was in the middle of the park once again for Canada this camp, it just felt wrong to give this to anyone but Canada’s #10 based on how he performed here.
Honourable Mention: Stephen Eustaquio
Road to 21:
Otherwise, one area to touch on here is the ‘Road to 21’ that I’ve been keeping an eye on all Octo, as it’s worth noting that while 21 was determined as the number that a team would likely need to at least finish in the top 4 and make the intercontinental playoff, as Panama will likely note, that obviously didn’t end up being the case.
So here, all I wanted to highlight was how solid of a final round this was. The fact that 4 teams all finished with 25 or more points (a minimum of 1.78 points per game) is very impressive, especially when it meant that a team that picked up 21 points (1.5 points per game) missed out.
In most final rounds, that’s unheard of, as usually the line is a lot lower to make it in, but that just shows how good Canada, Mexico, the US and Costa Rica were this Octo.
Because of that, it led to a fun finish to this round, as it took until the final two matchdays for teams to even book their spots to the World Cup (also unheard of), just showing how competitive this was.
And the fact that Canada finished on top of that heap is even greater, but is just one example among many of how far this team has come, leading them to this famed World Cup qualification.
Miscellaneous:
Overall Table:
Home Table:
Away Table:
CWCQ Golden Boot Standings:
Octo:
Cyle Larin (Canada) - 6 goals
Jonathan David (Canada) - 5 goals
Rolando Blackburn (Panama) - 4 goals
Tajon Buchanan (Canada), Cecilio Waterman (Panama), Ricardo Pepi (United States), Raul Jimenez (Mexico), Michail Antonio (Jamaica) - 3 goals
Overall:
Cyle Larin (Canada) - 13 goals
Jonathan David (Canada) - 9 goals
Tony Rugamas (El Salvador) - 8 goals
Canada’s xG numbers:
xG for: 22.14 (1.58/game)
xG against: 13.05 (0.93/game)
xG difference: +9.09
Looking Forward:
So overall, as seen here, while it might’ve been Canada’s worst statistically performing window, there was still a lot of good for them to take away here, at least beyond the main standout thing - the fact that they’ll be going to some little tournament in Qatar later this year.
And that’s huge. Given how hard of a window this was, they could’ve easily thrown everything away, and while they’d built up enough of a buffer to make that nearly impossible, the fact that they finished the job as they did is key.
Because of that, they’ll now play at a World Cup later this year, something that seemed unfathomable just months ago, showing how far this Canadian team has come.
But as we saw in this camp, and in this cycle as whole, when it came to the big moments, that’s when Canada really shone, allowing them to do what they did.
So as they now get set for the bigger games that lie ahead, it’ll be important that they continue that, but given how they took care of business this qualifying cycle, you wouldn’t put it past them, that’s for sure.
Canada celebrates their 3rd of 4 goals in a 4-0 win over Jamaica (Canada Soccer/Beau Chevalier)
Fully enjoy your commentary! Looking forward to Qatar! Here's something that I can't find anywhere: a table showing how many minutes each CANMNT player played in the Octo (or in all of the WC qualifying). How about putting that together and sharing it with everyone? Thanks!