A midfield deadlock, swift counter-attacks and a lot of 50/50s: Diving into what the CanMNT should expect tactically from Costa Rica ahead of crucial away World Cup qualifier
The CanMNT has a chance to officially book a ticket to Qatar this Thursday in Costa Rica. In this, I do an in-depth preview of that Les Rouges matchup with the Ticos from a tactical standpoint.
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It promises to be a battle for the ages.
On Thursday, the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, the ‘Octagonal’, will resume once again, kicking off a chaotic last set of matches in North America.
With just 3 games remaining in the Octo, things are about to get real for the 6 out of 8 teams in that stage still in contention for a spot at the World Cup in CONCACAF, which should lead to a fun final sprint to the end line now.
So for the CanMNT, a huge camp awaits them here, as they enter this March window with a big point to prove, looking to wrap up what has been a near-perfect qualifying campaign for them so far. Sitting atop the Octo with 25 points, 4 points ahead of their next competitor, they have built a tidy cushion to qualify, all but guaranteeing them a return to the World Cup later this year, snapping a 36-year drought in the process.
Already having booked a top 4 spot in the Octo, meaning they will at worse have to go through the intercontinental playoff, Canada will now want to make sure to book a top 3 spot, and the guaranteed World Cup berth that comes with it.
To do that, all they have to do is fulfill their magic number of 2 this camp, which is the combination of points gained or points dropped that they’ll need this window to make it to Qatar. And considering that they’re currently averaging 2.27 points per game through 11 matches this Octo, and are the only team still undefeated at this stage, that shouldn’t be too hard for them.
Currently riding a 6-game winning streak, everything's coming up perfect for this Canadian side right now, who despite continuing to face all sorts of adversity this final round, has just rolled through the punches to find themselves where they are now.
Which leads them to the first game of this window. Not making anything easier for themselves, their next chance to clinch comes now on Thursday, where a trip to San Jose, Costa Rica, awaits them.
There, they’ll take on a Costa Rica side who has been rolling as of late, having rescued themselves from a slow start to this Octo campaign to now sit 5th, just 1 point behind Panama in 4th place, and 5 points behind Mexico and the US, who are tied for 2nd. Because of that, there is veritable hope that the Ticos can pick up their 3rd consecutive World Cup berth, having represented CONCACAF at the 2014 and 2018 editions of the big dance.
And considering that they’ve picked up the most points in the last 5 games of any team not named Canada, it’s hard to dispute their belief that they can make that happen, especially not when you see some of the experience and pedigree that they have in their squad. Especially seeing that this game will be played in Costa Rica, where they have been able to open up their stadium capacity fully once again, they’re expected to come out flying in front of their home fans on Thursday.
So for Canada, it’s important that they head into that game with the right mindset. Sitting with the best road record in CONCACAF, having picked up an impressive 1.5 points/game on a road, they haven’t shied away from the big away games this Octo, which is partly why they are where they are, but this is a different beast.
Having already beat Costa Rica in the first meeting between these two teams, however, in a tense 1-0 result in Edmonton back in November, Canada is familiar with what this veteran Ticos side will look to bring to the table here, which does help. In a new environment, backed by their home fans, it will be a new challenge, yes, but nothing that this Canadian team hasn’t seen yet.
Because of that, this is a good chance to take a deeper look at what that challenge might look like. Using film from their last meeting, I’ll preview this game from a tactical standpoint, breaking down what this game could look like on Thursday.
So without further ado, here’s a deeper look at how things could go down in this one.
“We've got Costa Rica sitting right in front of us,” Canadian head coach John Herdman warned last week. “That match is everything in this moment.”
A physical battle:
But to begin, the first question one would probably ask is - ‘what should I reasonably expect from this Costa Rica side?’
And that’s a great place to start, as the short answer would probably be an absolute street fight, for a lack of a better way to put it.
That sort of term might be thrown around a lot in CONCACAF, but in the case of Costa Rica, there is some merit to it, as the Ticos are a team that loves to take you into the fight and grind things out, making games against them a real battle.
Just take a look at their last game, for example. There, Canada narrowly edged out a 1-0 win thanks to a tough error from backup goalkeeper Leonel Moreira, who gifted Jonathan David a chance he couldn’t miss in the 57th minute, and Canada cruised to victory from there.
But while it might’ve seemed a straightforward victory on paper, as Canada out-possessed them 62-38, outshot them 14-7 and won the Expected Goals (xG) battle 1.1-0.3, some other stats give an idea of how things really went.
For example, there were 44 fouls combined between the two teams, as well as 128 duels, and 23 tackles won. To add context to those numbers, when Canada played Mexico a few days later in what was regarded as a fairly physical contest in the ‘Iceteca’, they combined for ‘just’ 38 fouls, 88 duels and 15 tackles won, far lower numbers than the other match.
Because of that, it’s reasonable to expect something similar in this game. Things might be slightly different this time around, as the Edmonton game was played at temperatures just above freezing, while this game will be played in 25+ degree celsius weather down in San Jose, but other than that, this Costa Rica team is pretty clear in how they want to play no matter the conditions.
They love to flood the midfield, defend tightly and try and burn you on the counter-attack, and while they weren’t able to hurt Canada that way the first time around, you know that they’ll be itching to make up for it this time around.
“Yeah, Costa Rica poses a good challenge,” Canadian midfielder, Mark Anthony Kaye, noted earlier this week. “They do try to put a lot of numbers in midfield and overload us in that area of the field. So we are aware of their skills and their talents and it's just whether or not we can implement our game plan and tactics for them.”
“But that last game, yeah, it was really cagey, there were a lot of 50/50 duels in the midfield, and it was just kind of the team who ended up controlling the midfield, got a little edge in the game. And then we did a very good job to score, which makes the game much more difficult for them, so that's definitely something we're going to look to do in this game, too.”
For Canada, it’s important that they gear up for that. It can be easy to be fooled by the fact that Costa Rica is actually 3rd-last in the Octo with 8 goals in 11 games, but they’ve also conceded just 7, and all of their games have been decided by 1-goal, showing why they are where they are.
If anything, that’s why calling them a team that likes to beat you in a street fight feels complimentary, as that just shows how good they are at physically imposing themselves in games, while staying organized and pouncing on their rare opportunities.
So all of that to say, Canada is going to have to be ready for a lot of this on Thursday.
Costa Rica looks to lock things down and pounce at the other end:
But shifting from that side of the game, to more of the strategic side, while Costa Rica isn’t shy to make things rough-and-tumble, it’s also worth noting that they’re a very well-organized side, one who has a very clear identity on both sides of the ball.
Just the fact that they’ve conceded the second-fewest goals in the Octo should be evidence enough, but a look back at the clips from this Edmonton shows as much, as they do a good job of shutting things down at the back, before trying to spring forward the other way.
It might not be pretty at times, as they don’t really apply all that much pressure from the front, preferring to sit deep in more of a 4-4-2/4-5-1, instead forcing teams to try and play through them, instead of chasing the game.
To get an idea of what that set-up looks like off-the-ball, look at how Costa Rica sits in two banks of 4 here, as well as how tight those lines got as soon as Canada tried to play through it.
So because of that tight set-up, it means that while they’ll often be left to concede possession in games, content to let the other team pass it around, they’re ready to pounce if needed, almost setting a trap of sorts in the midfield.
For a look at what that looks like, take these next two clips, as examples.
In both of those sequences, not much happens, as Canada is just playing around the back, but look at how well-organized Costa Rica is once again, sitting deep and letting Canada do their thing, before trying to pounce as soon as they get anywhere close to past the halfway line.
With that wave of white shirts in the middle, they’re ready to step forward when they believe the time is right, but they won’t rush that process, making it a sort of waiting game of sorts.
And that’s what Canada will have to watch out for when they’re on the ball here. I’ll have more on what that’ll look like from their perspective in a second, but before we get there, those clips just show how Costa Rica wants the game to be played when they don’t have the ball, and the stats back it up.
Otherwise, the other thing to watch out for is what they do when they get the ball.
There, they don’t try to do anything complicated, but they have a clear game plan - progress the ball up the field, as quickly as possible.
Be it via a long ball, or some quick passes, most of their offensive play has a common theme - push play towards the other end in rapid fashion.
And because of that, it’s important that you don’t leave space for them on the counter, as that’s how they really like to hurt teams.
Canada did a great job of limiting them there in November, helping them keep a clean sheet, but even despite that, you could see flashes of what the Ticos wanted to do as soon as they got on the ball.
Sometimes it didn’t work out, yes.
And sometimes they got unlucky.
But when it came off, my goodness can it ever get fun for them to flood forward, pushing into the space available to them.
So for Canada, it’s imperative that they find a way to not get too stretched in transition, finding a way to keep a good mid-block defensively, all while ensuring that their full backs don’t get pushed too far forward.
They did a great job of avoiding that in Edmonton, as one of the nuances that we saw from their back 4 was that they always ensured that their weak side full back (the one on the side without the ball) would drop back, while one of their four midfielders would be ready to cover if the strong side full back (the one on the side with the ball) pushed up.
Thanks to that, they always found a way to keep 4 players underneath the ball, allowing them to get back before anything dangerous would happen, like they do a good job of doing in this clip.
Here, thanks to right midfielder Tajon Buchanan’s recovery run, which bought time for right back Richie Laryea to get back into position, Laryea was then able to make the key intervention.
Lastly, though, if Costa Rica ends up getting the ball from set positions, or is forced to build up, they are also direct, so while the threat isn’t as big as when they’re countering, that’s still something to watch out for.
Canada is pretty solid in the air, so it shouldn’t be anything to worry about, but it’s just something worth noting, as it’s possible we see a lot of these sorts of clips in this game.
Otherwise, there isn’t that much else to note about this Costa Rica team. They’ve got a clear identity, one that has gotten them to where they are for a reason, and they’ll be unlikely to stray far from that personality at this stage of proceedings.
As what I saw when I dove into their tactical profile ahead of that November meeting, this team will try to beat you in a very specific way, and nothing we saw in Edmonton is enough to suggest anything to the contrary ahead of this one.
It’s going to be physical, especially in the midfield, like Kaye cautioned, so as long as Canada is ready for that, they should be alright.
Canada needs to be quicker on the ball:
But while it’s one thing for Canada to be ready for Costa Rica’s physical and sturdy style of play - it’s another to actually capitalize and overcome that.
And although they did a good job of being ready for what the Ticos tried to throw at them in November offensively, as reflected by the fact that they held them to just 0.3 xG, they’re going to need to be much better at the other end of the pitch than they were on that cold Edmonton night.
In fact, had it not been for Moreira’s gaffe, which gifted them their best chance of the game, they probably wouldn’t have even broken 1 xG, something that has only happened twice this campaign.
Especially now with Keylor Navas back in the Costa Rican lineup for this window, Canada won’t be getting the luxury of any free goals this time around, as the 3-time UEFA Champions League winner is one of the best at his position for a reason.
So for Canada, the goal is clear this time around - find a way to create more clear-cut chances.
And when watching back the Edmonton game, that means being much better at one thing, in particular, which is how they play through their midfield.
They were excellent there defensively, to be fair, but they just couldn’t get much going there offensively, leading to a lot of frustrating sequences.
Take this next clip, as an example. There, Kaye receives the ball in a great position, but he just has no options in front of him, forcing him to play the ball backwards.
And that’s not the only time that would happen to them, showing that it’s not like that was an isolated situation, or anything of the like.
Because of that, Canada needs to do two things better in this game when it comes to playing through the midfield - present more options for their teammates, and be quicker when they do get the ball.
In Kaye’s case above, the latter wasn’t really relevant since the former didn’t happen, either, but had he had more options, that could’ve maybe changed things.
And there are countless examples from that game that shows why that’s the case.
Take this next sequence as an example. Here, fellow midfielder, Stephen Eustaquio, finds a way to get into a little pocket of space, where he does well to find Jonathan David on a progressive pass.
Returning to those philosophies which I outlined above, being that Canada needs to present options in the midfield and play quick, David is a great example of why you need the former, even if he definitely could’ve done better in the latter when he did get on the ball.
The good news, however? That was a one-off incident, as he certainly did a good job of learning from his earlier mistake in this next clip, applying those principles quite nicely in this instance.
And as you might’ve noticed there, all thanks to that, Canada were then able to find some rare open space in transition, something that eluded them for much of the game.
Through just a simple pass and some good movement (along with some quick play), it really can make such a big difference, showing why it’s important that Canada do a lot more of that this time around.
If they do what I’m about to show in this next clip, which is to hold onto the ball too long and dribble into trouble, they’ll have problems, but if they follow those above principles, they should be more than alright.
Lastly, one thing to watch out for Canada is something that they did a few times in that Edmonton game, and that was to go for the big switch of play, which they did a lot more than usual.
But with how narrow Costa Rica likes to play, it’s a smart idea, as it can be a way to stretch their lines, which as seen with the clips above, is a good way to create space.
And when you look at what Canada was able to do with their big switches of play, that idea was only backed up.
Here are some examples of that.
First, there’s this switch from Steven Vitoria to Sam Adekugbe, who was able to quickly get in behind Costa Rica’s full backs, nearly creating a dangerous cut back for what could’ve been a high xG chance.
Secondly, there’s this other switch from Vitoria (something which if he’s healthy, I’d expect a ton more of in this game), once again finding Adekugbe, who almost created another high xG chance on a low cross.
So while neither of those two clips panned out, those were rare instances where Canada was able to run into space in the final third, showing why they might be wise to target more of those big switches in this game.
But overall, that’s going to be the theme of this game for Canada.
Costa Rica are going to give them no space on the ball in their half, so the onus is going to be on Canada to create it for themselves, be it via how they move in midfield, or how they stretch the field, something that they just didn’t do enough of in the last game, beyond small flashes.
How should Canada line up?
Seeing all of that, however, while Canada will certainly need to make slight adjustments to their game plan to do all of that, they’ll also need to be smart in how they line up.
One thing that seemed to negatively impact Canada was that their 4-4-2 ended up looking a lot more like a 4-2-4 at times, which in some games, could work, but against a Costa Rica team that was so solid in the middle of the park, made it hard for them to control the game.
Because of that, it’d make a lot of sense for Canada to go for more of their familiar 3-5-2 this game, one that can turn into a 4-4-2 off the ball (as has been their usual defensive set-up all Octo), giving them the same solidity defensively that they had in Edmonton, while also giving them more punch in the middle.
Considering that Costa Rica will probably run with that similar sort of 4-5-1 that will morph into a 4-4-2 that they had last time(with a predicted lineup expected to be like the one below), it’d make a lot of sense for Canada to put a little more in the midfield, giving them a bit more control there.
Knowing that Keylor Navas will be back, they need to find a way to generate more from the middle, as chances will be hard to come by, making it imperative that Canada makes things as easy for themselves in that regard.
As seen by their shot map below, they’ve done such a good job of funneling chances into the danger areas in and around their opponents 6 all Octo, so they’ll need to keep a similar approach this time around.
Therefore, with all of that in mind, here’s the XI I’d like to see from Canada in this game.
(For reference, here’s the XI Canada went with back in November).
Firstly, it’d be a flexible back 5, no matter who slots in at centre back (Vitoria’s health is the big question mark right now), as the goal will be for Richie Laryea, Alistair Johnston and Cristian Gutierrez (Tajon Buchanan is also a shout at left wing back) to provide the flexibility to push Canada between a 3-5-2 and a 4-4-2 in different situations.
Then, in the middle, Atiba Hutchinson and Stephen Eustaquio would be expected to be their usual selves in the middle of the park, controlling possession and doing a lot of dirty work off the ball. With Jonathan Osorio in front of them, acting as a link to the forwards, that should then hopefully give them an outlet to play through in that area (as was lacking last time), along with the wide threat of Laryea and Gutierrez (or Buchanan).
Lastly, up front, that leaves Cyle Larin and Jonathan David to keep growing their partnership from last camp, as they showed some great flashes there. With one usually liking to drop, while the other stays forward, that should work well in this set-up, as that’ll give Osorio plenty of support in the build-up, allowing Canada’s frontline to not get isolated as much as they did in the Edmonton game.
So overall, through that, they should hopefully be able to build off of what they did well in that return matchup, all while giving themselves a bit more of a punch in the middle, hopefully giving them a boost to be ready for what Costa Rica will try and throw at them.
Looking Forward:
But other than that, it should be fun to watch this game for a multitude of other reasons, too, which will only add to the intricacies of such an intriguing matchup.
With the crowd, heat and surface potentially playing a role, this will be another true CONCACAF road test for Canada to soak up here, one where they’ll certainly learn a lot about themselves.
They did pretty well in act 1 of their Central American adventures back in January, beating Honduras and El Salvador in away games then, but with both of those teams far out of the World Cup race, playing Costa Rica (and later Panama), who are very much still in the hunt for Qatar, things should be cranked up to a whole other level here.
So because of that, Canada will have to be ready, both in how they come out in their game plan, as well as how they handle the crowd.
The good news is that based on what we saw in this piece, they should be ready for the former, and based on what we’ve seen from them this Octo, they should also be ready for the latter, so all that’s left is for them to now go out and get the job done now, officially punching that ticket to Qatar.
Cover Photo via: Canada Soccer/Martin Bayzl
A midfield deadlock, swift counter-attacks and a lot of 50/50s: Diving into what the CanMNT should expect tactically from Costa Rica ahead of crucial away World Cup qualifier
Excellent content as always Alex! Have fun in Costa Rica and hope you get to sample their tasty late night street food.
In a game that is likely to be intense and physical in the extreme, the players will have to be disciplined not to give the Costa Rican players any excuse to protest a challenge or whatever, incite the crowd and possibly influence the referee.