#8? #10? Inverted winger? Analyzing Jessie Fleming’s best position for the CanWNT/CanXNT heading into 2022
Heading into 2022, one player to watch on the CanWNT/CanXNT is Jessie Fleming. Ahead of the start of the Arnold Clark Cup, I look at what her best position should be for Canada going forward.
There’s no doubt that 2021 was Jessie Fleming’s year.
Having picked up a full cabinet of trophies with her club, Chelsea, along with an Olympic gold medal with Canada, it felt like everything that she touched last year turned into gold (pun very much intended).
Heading into it, one could only feel like Fleming was on the precipice of a breakout, but to see her actually go out and do it as she did? Not many were expecting that, although it was certainly one that was many years in the making.
And it came at the perfect time for the CanWNT/CanXNT, in particular, who saw Fleming grow into a legitimate leader on their team, after spending years as a strong support piece. Thanks to that, she was able to play a big role in their Olympic push, scoring some clutch goals, all while holding together the midfield in some of their biggest games.
As a result, she finished with a team-high 4 goals, but more importantly, took the stage in some of those big games and thrived, showing that at 23 years of age, she’d well and truly arrived as a player.
So now, heading into 2022, big things are expected of Fleming. Having also grown into a key part of her Chelsea side, going from a role player in 2020/2021 to a starter in 2021/2022, she seems to get better every time she sees the field for both club and country.
Which for Canada, has to be exciting. Having now conquered the Olympics, the next task on the Canadians wishlist is to conquer the toughest frontier in soccer - the World Cup.
And with that coming next year in 2023, when Fleming will be 25, it certainly feels like she’d be central to any of Canada’s efforts in their quest for that, especially based on what we saw from her at the Olympics last year.
Because of that, as 6th-ranked Canada begins their journey towards the World Cup this week, starting with the Arnold Clark Cup, a 4-team friendly tournament with top 10 sides England (#8), Germany (#3) and Spain (#9), there’s a lot of eyes on Fleming right now, and for good reason.
With World Cup qualifiers coming this summer, before the tournament proper next year, it feels like Fleming’s time to shine, and based on what we know about her, she looks ready to step up. And considering that she’s kicking off the Arnold Clark Cup by captaining Canada in their opener against England, that much is clear, just giving us an idea of what’s to come for Fleming.
But for all of the good things that look to be on the horizon for Fleming, there is one thing that isn’t so certain quite yet - where she’ll line up for Canada on that journey. She’ll be on the field for the team in the big moments again, no doubt, but considering that she’s played at the #8, #10 and even on the wing for club and country, where exactly will she line up in those big games?
So in this, I’ll be diving into some of the numbers from her past breakout year with Chelsea, before analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of this Canadian squad, helping us better understand what that role could be.
And given how important Fleming has been and is expected to be to Canada’s success, hopefully that can give us an idea for how Canada can make sure they’re getting the best out of her, giving their young star the tools she needs to continue to be a difference-maker for Les Rouges.
Fleming gets set to take a penalty in the gold medal final last summer vs Sweden (Canada Soccer/MexSport)
Chelsea numbers stand out:
There’s no doubt that Fleming is among the best young players in the world right now, if not one of the best players, period.
In just her 2nd season as a professional, she’s become a regular starter on one of the top teams in England, playing nearly 1000 minutes so far this year, and she’s proven to be a key difference-maker every time she’s been on the field for those minutes.
And what’s been great about Fleming’s play this season is how she’s grown as the season has gone along, too.
After a year in which Chelsea won the domestic quadruple, bringing home a league title, the FA Cup, the League Cup and the Community Shield (which came in 2021/2022), and came close to adding to that continentally by finishing runners-up in the Champions League final, it was going to be interesting to see where Fleming fit in that puzzle as they looked to repeat that success.
Having picked up around 500 minutes en route to those successes last year, Fleming certainly played a role, but in more of a supporting fashion, mostly off the bench.
But this year, that’s changed completely, as indicated by her rise in minutes.
Thanks to that, she’s played a big role in Chelsea’s push to retain those trophies, as they sit 2nd in the league, in the league cup final, and are still in the FA Cup. They did exit the Champions League in the group stages, which was a big upset, but other than that, they are still on track to win another domestic quadruple, which would be impressive to see them repeat.
And when I say that she’s played a big role, she truly has. You can just see that in the numbers.
To start, she’s been doing well by the boxcar stats, sitting with 3 goals and 2 in league play, 1 goal in League Cup play and 1 goal and 1 assist in Champions League play, putting her at 5 goals and 3 assists in all competitions, which isn’t bad for a midfielder.
Especially when you remember that she didn’t score at all in her first year, it’s been a big improvement for her, showing how quickly she’s adjusted to the level.
But seeing that, while the boxcar numbers are good, the next point is always the one that some people will inevitably ask - how is she doing by the advanced numbers?
So using FBref’s advanced stat-tracking for the FAWSL (unfortunately they don’t have the same data for either of the cups or the Champions League) you can try to answer that query (For reference, you can find Fleming’s full FBRef numbers here).
To start, let’s dive into the goals and assists, in particular, before diving into the other numbers.
And when beginning with that, there’s a lot to like. Not only does Fleming have those 3 goals and 2 assists in league play, but she’s been full value for them, as well, currently sitting with 3.8 expected goals (xG) and 1.5 expected assists (xA).
If anything, she’s actually been unlucky not to score more, but given that there isn’t much difference between her actual tallies and expected tallies, showing that they’ve come as a merit for her hard work.
Which leads us perfectly to the rest of the numbers, as that quickly becomes a theme when looking at them.
And let’s dive into those, using FBref’s scouting reports, which takes all players in the FAWSL who have played a minimum of 450 minutes in the last 365 days, and compares their numbers (on a per 90 basis) against their positional peers.
But there, we then get to an interesting conundrum. Given that Fleming has played as both a midfielder and as a winger, she actually has two templates, one for each position.
So how do we choose which template fits Fleming best? There’s no perfect answer yet, so let’s dive into both, starting first with her midfielder one.
And when doing that, we can see that there is a lot to be excited about here, because as seen by all the green, she compares quite well to her peers in several key numbers.
First, there are her offensive stats, in which she’s been dominant, sitting in the 90th percentile in non-penalty goals with 0.31/90, 97th percentile in non-penalty xG with 0.40/90, 75th percentile in shots with 1.73/90, 92nd percentile in assists with 0.20/90, 83rd percentile in xA with 0.16/90, 97th percentile in npxG+xA with 0.56/90 and 81st percentile in shot-creating actions with 2.96/90.
It’s a lot of data, but what that shows is not only is she among the dominant midfielders in the FAWSL in terms of putting the ball in the net and assisting others, sitting in the top 10 percent in both stats, but she’s doing well to generate those chances, too.
That’s further reflected in the ball progression stats, because while she’s in the 38th percentile in dribbles with 0.71/90, she’s in the 83rd percentile in progressive passes with 4.89/90 and 72nd percentile in progressive carries with 3.77/90, which is quite impressive.
She is helped by her teammates there, sitting in the 86th percentile in progressive passes received with 5.61/90, but that also reflects well on her ability to find space, especially seeing that she’s in the 94th percentile in touches in the penalty area with 4.79/90.
Otherwise, to shift to some defensive numbers, she does lag a bit behind most midfielders in interceptions and clearances, although she does make up for it by sitting in the 85th percentile in pressures with 24.67/90 and 74th percentile in tackles with 2.55/90.
So overall, there is a lot to like with her midfielder card, which suggests that Fleming has the attributes of a strong progressive midfielder, one that creates and finishes actions herself, therefore indicating that between being a #8 and a #10, the latter fits her skill set better.
But before diving into if that’s her best position or not, that means that we must look at the numbers from that other position in question, and that’s the winger spot, using FBref’s numbers once again.
And when doing that, there is once again a lot to like with those numbers.
To start with the offensive numbers, she sits a bit lower in the non-penalty goals (72nd percentile with 0.31/90) and assists (88th percentile with 0.20/90), which is to be expected given that this section is likely to have more attacking players.
But despite that, Fleming still comes out strong in her ability to generate chances, sitting in the 88th percentile in npxG with 0.40/90, 72nd percentile in xA with 0/16/90, 84th percentile in npxG+xA with 0.56 and 73rd percentile in shot-creating actions with 2.96.
What that shows is that while she might not be generating as much raw output as most wingers, she’s doing a good job of generating chances to make up for it, for both her and her teammates.
But otherwise, how does she fare in ball progression? And that’s a mixed bag, because while she sits in the 14th percentile in dribbles completed with 0.71/90, 54th in progressive carries with 3.77/90 and 60th percentile in progressive passes received with 5.61/90, she sits in the 92nd percentile in progressive passes with 4.89/90, and in the 77th percentile in touches in the attacking penalty area with 4.79/90.
That suggests that while she’s not taking on players as much as a winger would, she’s making up for it in other areas, doing a good job of finding her teammates in good areas, especially when you remember some of her offensive numbers.
Elsewhere, she makes up for that by being quite strong defensively, showing her background as a midfielder, sitting in the 86th percentile in pressures with 24.67/90, 76th percentile in tackles with 2.55/90, 69th percentile in interceptions with 1.73/90 and 79th percentile in blocks with 2.04/90, more than making up for her sitting in the 10th percentile in clearances with 0.31/90.
That shows that she can add a bit of a defensive presence at the position, which in the modern game, is quite valuable, which you like to see.
So overall, with her winger stats, that suggests that while she might not thrive as an out and out winger, she’d do very well in more of an inverted role, which considering that she’s been often playing as one of the 2 in a 4-3-2-1 for Chelsea, shows that her coaches are seeing that, too.
What do they tell us?
But then seeing that those stats indicate that she’d be best as either a #10 or an inverted winger, the question then becomes this - what position is best for her?
And it’s hard to say.
For example, looking at her attacking midfield stats, you can see that she’d be most dangerous operating in the final third, pulling the strings. Be it from making late runs into the box, or finding teammates, her ball progression stats are quite impressive.
Not only that, she has enough defensive chops to be involved at both ends with or without the ball, be it if she’s dropping back or pressing up.
But as an inverted winger, she can give you some strong chance creation from the wing, while also giving you more of a presence defensively out wide, which given how important pressing is in the modern game, is also something to consider.
She might not dribble as much as most wingers, and wouldn’t be able to stretch the field, but she’d make up for it with strong service, while also being good for a goal every once in a while herself.
So ultimately, there isn’t much to split between the two positions, as ultimately it’d depend on the team that she’s on. For Chelsea, that means an inverted winger, but at a different club, the situation could be different, so it would honestly depend on who is available and the formation used.
Therefore, if Fleming is on a team with a strong frontline, but not a lot of progression from midfield, the #10 role makes more sense, but if she was on a team with a bit of a weaker frontline, but decent ball progression, she could do a job as a winger, provided she’s got a good #9 to feed the ball to.
Fleming in action for Canada at the Olympics last summer (Canada Soccer/Daniela Porcelli)
What about Canada?
Which now leads us to the main point of this piece - where should she play for Canada?
And it’s a good question. Mostly, she’s played as a #8 for Les Rouges, sometimes pushing into a #10 role, and she’s done well in both positions, but with her emergence as a winger for Chelsea, you can’t help but wonder what she could do in that position for Canada.
So using the criteria from the last section, we must ask - where does Canada need her?
There, it’s hard to find a straightforward answer, but seeing the composition of this squad, you can infer a few things.
First, Canada is pretty deep on the wing, where they’ve got Janine Beckie, Deanne Rose, Nichelle Prince and Cloe Lacasse as winger options, without mentioning Adriana Leon, who is a #9 but can play out wide. Same thing can be said up front, where they’ve got Christine Sinclair, Jordyn Huitema, Evelyne Viens and Leon as the main #9 options.
In midfield, though, they’re a bit thinner, as beyond Quinn, Julia Grosso, Desiree Scott and Sophie Schmidt (as well as Ashley Lawrence), there aren’t a lot of proven options in the middle, especially in terms of a #10.
Because of that, it would make sense to play Fleming as a #10, right?
And while the answer is a relatively straightforward ‘yes’, there is one thing worth considering here - Canada’s offensive struggles.
There’s no secret that Canada struggles to score goals, as even during their Olympic gold medal triumph they scored just 6 goals in 6 games, and it’s been something they’ve been trying to fix.
Throughout that, Fleming has been playing a sort of advanced #8 role, but while Fleming has done pretty well for herself, scoring 4 goals and adding 1 assist last year, it’s yet to get Canada’s offence flowing.
So seeing that, it’d be interesting to see Canada try one of three things. Here they are:
Option A: Canada plays a similar formation to what they are now, a sort of 4-3-1-2, and play Fleming as the 1, instead of one of the three, and bring in Julia Grosso (or Ashley Lawrence) into the 3 with Quinn and Desiree Scott. With that, Quinn/Grosso/Scott would be expected to hold down the midfield, leaving Fleming to be the main creative outlet for the two strikers.
Option B: Canada switches to a 4-3-2-1 with an out-and-out #9, with Fleming joining Deanne Rose (which as I explored a few months back, would look best in the 2 of a 4-3-2-1) or Janine Beckie as the 2 in that formation. Again, it would require Grosso (or Lawrence) to join Quinn and Scott in midfield, but the change would be to have a focal point #9 instead of a duo, with Fleming and Rose filling in underneath.
Option C: Canada tries a 3-5-2, with Fleming as the #10 in the 5, allowing Canada to get 3 centre backs on the pitch, get more width with wing backs, and still get the 2 up front. It’s a bit risky with the midfield with just the pivot, but Fleming can fill in as a #8, although ideally, you’d want to make sure you’re getting the most out of her offensively.
And of those 3 options, hopefully that would allow Canada to both solve their offensive woes, while really getting the most out of Fleming.
Personally, option B looks the most enticing, especially considering that you’d get the prospect of seeing Fleming and Rose (or Beckie) in the positions that they play for their clubs, but also even something like A could be a simple but necessary tweak that gets Fleming higher up the pitch.
So while it might not solve the problem overnight, as it’ll take other tactical tweaks and continued improvement for Canada to make that happen, it’s an idea, and at this stage of Canada’s World Cup cycle, this is the time for ideas.
Looking Forward:
But either way, one thing will be for sure heading into this camp - no matter where she plays, Fleming will have a big role, with Wednesday’s captaincy announcement just reflecting that.
Ideally, Canada will find a way to get the best out of both her and the team, but even then, Fleming has proven to be effective no matter where she is on the pitch, helping play a big role in this team’s success.
And that’s just part of what makes this Canadian team tick, as she isn’t the only one who does that, as players just seem to find a way to do their best no matter where deployed, showing their unity.
So now, they’ll have to find a way to translate that into goals, as while their hard work and strong defence has done well for them, you’d like to see them add some punch to that, but with Fleming’s rise as of late, she can be someone who’d help them in that push.
Because of that, it’ll be something to keep an eye on this camp, as Fleming looks to top a memorable 2021 with an even better 2022.